baltosquid

HRRR, after being one of the more bullish models for QPF last night, is now apparently discounting this big band we've got forming... hopefully more upside awaits.

Just now, Fozz said:

It really is a snow globe outside.

For those of us near Baltimore and especially north, this past week might be our best stretch of winter since 2016.

With the snow on snow, this will easily be the deepest I've ever seen snow in Baltimore (moved just before the March warning event). Might even pass that single event total with today's event if we keep booming, but it will be close!

Just now, real said:

Fox 45 Baltimore weather professional just said Baltimore should see it's heaviest snow about 2 p.m. Does that make sense?

If the coastal gets going and the banding is good, maybe. Certainly going to be someone enjoying some wraparound fluff in the early afternoon.

That eastern band is no joke. Rolled through here and brought the best snow I've seen in years. Enjoy, NE crew/Eastern shore.

I want the whole frigid 8 inches.

Wish my phone could even partially capture the increasing rates. Still haven't plateaued. This band has the goods.

That band over Baltimore is doing work now! Was impatiently looking out on the deck and seeing light snow for a few minutes but now the snow is falling MUCH harder and with MUCH better flakes!

Flakes trying to get bigger in Baltimore. Radar has some brighter greens filling in along 95 to the SW that are heading this way!

Picking up in Canton. Need that band to fill in just a bit more to the south and we're really cooking. Moderate with a mix of flake sizes, mostly smaller (but bigger than last storm's pixie dust) but some bigger ones in there too.

Also should shoutout the UKMET which put out a big run for central MD at 00z.

6 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

It didn't know what was happening until 8am this morning

It was probably the wettest at 00z. Wetter than the NAM and the globals by a tenth of an inch QPF or more! sure, every model has been busted by the upside here to an extent but HRRR was definitely ahead of the curve before game time

Do we have to congratulate the HRRR? I feel like while other models were keying in on the h5 stuff being better for us (commendably), the HRRR was the only one willing to ALSO bump the QPF towards 4 AND keep it there for a wide swathe of the forum. Also seems to be really keen on the wrap around.

Snow has dialed back to light after steady moderate stuff for the last hour plus. Looks like it’s about to backfill on the radar though! Already have refreshed and exceeded snowpack from early week. Don’t have a clean surface to check accurately but given that milestone, it’s gotta be 2+ already. I want a death band later today to push 5-6 for the storm!

2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Who’s staying up for the euro?

I'm gonna hop in bed with the ukie

Could get some sort of frozen out of this. Would be messy.

3k looks real nice on the wrap around snow.

Conditional Symmetric Instability? At this time of year? At this time of day? In the Mid Atlantic? Localized entirely on Mt PSU?

I take back everything I have said or even thought about the HRRR model. It is a precious thing. They should run it out to 30 days.

First closure casualty tomorrow: APG. I think they’re going for a more proactive look after not even mentioning the MLK storm until… Tuesday. To delay Wednesday…

Really just want to see one more QPF bump… we got some great changes to area of snowfall at 12z but now what would really complete the enhancement would be everyone tacks on a smidge more precip.

GEM is a tick south with QPF range but pretty damn close to a hold. 

Feel like GFS looked like a better run in most everything save for moisture (lost some upside but wider coverage). If it comes in even a little wetter with that expanded area we should all be happy. Feel like we’ll be fighting with dry slots.

Just now, paulythegun said:

Look at the jet streak shifting south (6z nam vs 12z nam). Puts DC proper (and areas just north) closer to the left exit area.

Think you accidentally grabbed the forecast loop not the trend loop

RGEM is moister. Mostly a 1-2 affair with some (near) 3s, wider than 06z. No NAM, but good to see other models latching on to a QPF bump.

Just now, osfan24 said:

Actually thought totals would be higher than that after seeing the run play out.

“H5 pass greatly improved surface could be even better, lagged a bit, FOLKS” let’s do this, dawn of the final day!