baltosquid

Early on, don't think the Canadian looks good either. Energy is a tad faster through 42 and the TPV looks pretty comfortably gapped from the storm.

It's not gonna be a huge slip but yeah there's just nothing exciting happening at h5 like we were seeing in the big runs. As long as that's the case, there's just no way for it to climb up the coast, let alone tuck.

There's just no big time interaction. Nothing to initiate a phase. Just kind of rides up where it can and looks set to shunt off without much of a coastal effect.

The TPV really hasn't interacted much and is backed off too west I think at 69. I don't think it's gonna get involved in a turn...

At 63, looking off the Atlantic coast, might be very hard to get it to really turn the corner down the line.

Okay at 57, maybe some positive changes. Higher heights out front, may have more room to turn. The TPV has more out west, seems better oriented to help us turn, even it it's not tied up enough to phase. Energy itself doesn't look much different.

At 45 still not seeing any big changes to TPV interactions, and while the heights are higher behind it they also seem a little further back, so not sure if it's gonna feel it. Not really digging any deeper. Energy maybe is a bit wider west to east.

39, TPV's got a bit more energy held out to the WNW in Canada. Will that swing around and help our storm turn the corner, or kick it out? I'm too dumb to say

Through 30, heights in the pacific are a bit higher. Stronger Aleutian low. Not seeing any big changes to the TPV from my dumb eye.

I'm seeing a lot of squabbling over 00z and not enough hopecasting for 06z

The fact that the euro HELD when everything else seems to perceive something that screws up the phase does give me some hope. It sees *something* to keep things together. And if there's one model I'd trust to have the breadth of data to pick up that *something* at only 4 days, it would be the Euro. But we shall see...

At 42, UKIE seems to be continuing the trend of less TPV interaction.

Maybe we should just agree not to even think about making a thread until we're in meso range....

Is it too late to say “just wait til the energy comes ashore?” That usually cheers this place right up.

You know it’s a legit opportunity when red usernames you’ve hardly ever or even never seen before come around!

That’s an amazing signal on the EPS this far out. Anyone have panels?

2 hours ago, Warm Nose said:

... much better than 7 drives and no points.

It's all about perspective.

If the Eagles hadn't taken their foot off the gas and put in the backups, hey, 6 field goals probably would have still won the Super Bowl

Absolutely awful drive home from Harford county to Baltimore (got home about 30 minutes ago). 95 was caving in places and I’m not surprised there was a crash soon after I was gone. Really find it hard to fathom there wasn’t at least 59 minutes or something, straight up dangerous situations all over the road start to finish and it all could have been avoided. And I would have been safe at home on a normal Tuesday if not for RTO.

Anyway… Baltimore is looking good. Everything has caved. Small flakes coming down hard. Hopefully those fluff up as things get colder.

HRRR looks way better. Let’s hope it’s not the only adjustment! Still a few hours until game time up here.

Just now, ravensrule said:

Everything will come back 10-20 miles North tonight. 

I keep holding onto this sentiment because it seems like every time we’ve gotten a storm with little to no blocking setup, like clockwork the r/s line has at least one north jaunt before game time, often to heartbreaking results. Suddenly getting a stubborn storm in that setting when we couldn’t buy that for a while doesn’t sit right with me, but we are getting very close now…

Would take the NAM in a heartbeat but we really can’t keep bleeding moisture.

HRRR just has dry air kill the early phases of the storm in much of Maryland. If not for that, it may have looked like an uninspiring but not so bad run. Hopefully it’s being too stingy with moisture in the NE reaches of the shield.

I’m hanging onto the idea that the absence of an established, strong block portends a north trend, since it feels like that’s been the story for things like this the past few years - just turns out they had no room to go north for places like Baltimore, unlike this case. But at the same time, heartbreak in general has usually carried the day no matter the particulars…

Beautiful in deep creek, radar looks decent back home in Baltimore, but can’t make real obs from here! Hopefully there’s at least a fresh handful of inches when I return tomorrow

edit: oops radar loop was old. Looks like it’s dryslot time back home now

Temps still ticking worse for 95, not alarm bell level but I don’t want anymore moves like that