baltosquid

Hp30 index climbed to 7.333 briefly but has come back down. Saw pics of auroras over Lake Ontario but probably not going to get to us barring a bigger hit waiting in the wings tonight. And of course the clouds are excruciatingly stubborn on top of this.

Heating up a bit again. This is about as strong as it got last night before it petered out, so hopefully it doesn't repeat that fizzle. Looks like inclement weather should clear up soon and, for once, we won't be traveling or waiting until 3 and 4 am to see if it is truly happening...

Tonight might end up more of a long-exposure, horizon based photography thing in low-light pollution areas - CME does seem to have had an impact based on the auroral oval forecast (and it got a tad stronger last update as well) but it doesn't look close to last night. Hopefully tomorrow is better, seems like it will at least provide a better chance of clear (enough) skies!!

Forecast picking back up. Mostly cloudy here, can actually see the moon and some stars through a patch of sky but not placed where I can see the north horizon. Hopefully continues to strengthen.

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Keep seeing conflicting info about whether tonight or tomorrow night will be better. I guess you just stick your head outside and find out.

I kind of assume tonight won’t be as crazy, if only because I haven’t seen the crazy pics from Europe like yesterday. That was what motivated me to get off my ass

FWIW - HRRR is clearing clouds out by 3am. Might be worth an alarm.

CME modeling has impacts at around 8-9pm and again at 1-2am, my read is see how the first hit affects things. If it fizzles, getting some much needed rest. If we get juiced up again, I’ll stick around…

https://x.com/mathewjowens/status/1789256119648428163

Simulation of CME impacts... could have more striking the magnetosphere later today/tonight, and then one could hit Sunday as well. So definitely still possible that the auroras could get juiced up tonight. But clouds will again be a factor.
 

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Is it over? Any chance tonight?

SWPC says we're back at G5 storm level! If that were to hold until tonight, it would once again allow for auroras to be seen IF you can get clear skies, ideally to the north. But once again the cloud situation will be dicey, maybe even worse than last night.

Finally getting notably clearer - big giant hole in the coverage right over my head, stars visible, but northern horizon blocked and my DSLR can't pick up any auroras overhead. Think it might continue clearing though. Last few attempts on the deck before I call it a night.

More cloud fissures, but not a full break... so close. I've giving it until 2, I don't think the Kp will hold long enough to make 4am work (but I would love to be wrong). There are true breaks in the clouds around me per satellite, but haven't gotten lucky yet.

Hp30 & Hp60 - Kp index (gfz-potsdam.de)

Basically, similar to kp value, shorter time frame. Pegged at 8 right now still, which means low on the horizon is still possible. But if that pocket of broken clouds does not make its way over here soon, I'll probably head to bed...

GONG Farside Images (nso.edu)
Wonder if that theorized big spot on the farside will survive until it's got Earth in its sights? 

There's a pocket of broken looking clouds on IR moving S from northeast MD. Could be an opportunity for some.

Spotted a fissure in the clouds overhead! Just a tiny one. But baby steps!

RDPS also has much of MD clearing between 2 and 5 am.

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

So how does this work? Gonna ebb and flow all night? Was visibly red earlier, now calmed down a bit.

I've never seen a storm like this, only a small show up in Iceland on a relatively quiet night, so not sure. But it can definitely be variable. Depends a lot on the CME(s) that hit us, and we can only model those with so much precision... could be more in the tank given this is a "cannibal CME" that was 3 individual CMEs getting rolled up by the fastest of the bunch into a bigger one, with even more individual ones behind it. But timing is imprecise.

It's too bad it's raining in Georgetown

My friends in Rochester just sent me some photos. It's GORGEOUS, pinks, auroral corona, just magnificent. Living up to expectations wherever it is clear it seems... hopefully the post midnight clearing happens, and even speeds up!

HRRR showing the midnight to 4am clearing as well!

Edit: Actually this is 1am to 5am, but most of the clearing is underway by 4am

Nam 3km, midnight to 4am

This is basically a spaceweather weenie's dream

31 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Satellite looks a bit better than I thought it would at this point. Think I still drive but maybe I don’t need to go as far.

Low level clouds quickly dissipating outside the overcast. Definitely think it won't take much westward driving to get enough cloud breaks to see things fairly easily, if the auroras make it down here. I might consider that if I can stay within an hour's drive. But I'm still an optimist w/ regards to Baltimore. It's the opposite as the eclipse, where the clouds only had to win once to mess up viewing... with an all-night event seeming like a better and better chance, I just need to get one break...

I’m still in the “stay put” camp… even if it takes until 4am. NAM hints at thinning and maybe breaks past midnight. HRRR takes a bit longer but trended better over the day. I already traveled and caught the lights in Iceland this year, so traveling tonight won’t be as special as getting to see them in Baltimore.

CMEs starting to hit, geomagnetic storm is underway. Many more on the way. Another X class flare this morning lobbed another one, too. From spaceweather.com

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Thanks for making the thread! Very interested in seeing the aurora somewhat locally. Became a bucket list item after a few great local chasers caught them in the Blue Ridge last year.

Really bummed by clouds tonight. Hoping for a miracle - don’t want to drive super far north and even then odds don’t look fantastic.

Looks like low clouds primarily on the backend of the meh weather today. No middle/high. I’m hopeful over the night we’ll get some dissipation and breaks!

big CMEs on the way. Looks like we’ll have varying amounts of cloud cover this weekend, mostly lower tonight but perhaps more layered tomorrow, maybe we can catch some auroras if there are breaks. Tonight seems like the more likely time to see them (late, after midnight), but for such a strong storm and with multiple CMEs approaching in a complex manner, it could be a long run type of event.

Still can see the sun thru the clouds with the eclipse glasses in Rochester, I think pulling off a veiled but still visible totality is possible! HRRR is trending better it seems. Will probs miss out on the corona though.