baltosquid

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But ya know what, it’s a free country still, I think… so ya can feel however you want. Me, I’m enjoying every flake I can get. I don’t care what time of year.  Is all snow and it’s going to melt no matter when it falls. 

Sure, it's supposed to melt, but you know what I say? Buffalo didn't have the guts to leave their giant 2014 snowpile undisturbed. We can build the mythical summer-surviving snowpile here, if we ever get enough snow...

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This is really valuable... but nothing works 100%, I wish it did it would make this so much easier.  But seasonal trends arent 100%, there are anomalies within the seasonal norms, I did jack that one time mid january for example.  And one model might do great with a storm then utter fail the next time.  I made a critical error trusting the Euro way too much because it was really really really good with several storms in a row, including the one that hit New England last weekend.  It was dead on perfect with that from like 8 days out.  So when it was showing a big snow around day 5 I was thinking...money.  But its performance on the last few storms did not mean it was going to nail this one.  So I agree the AI should become a big part of the equation...but nothing is 100% of it, we make the mistake of relying too much on whatever proved best "the last time" and forgetting that over the long run none of our tools is perfect taken by itself and we need to factor in everything and even then "good luck" lol 

Absolutely! It’s another “thing to watch” and I think we can say AI models are going to be consequential but of course never perfect and will have their own shortcomings. Super eager to see more of these models though. I wonder when we’ll get a mesoscale one - I figure that will take a bit longer since hallucination probably will be worse. 

Something to chew on w/ regards to AI. Really had a good idea of the debacle from a long way out. We’re a bit beyond this range looking towards the 28th, so the current AI depiction has some more noise to work through than shown here around hr192, but we’re probably not far from the AI latching on to a credible idea of progression. Maybe even by Friday.

GEFS getting more of a coastal look with the 28th but too north and warm at this point I’d say. EPS has a similar location but less precip. GEPS still seems to have a lot of variance.

Kinda looks like it’s not a Miller B anymore judging by the AI and EPS. Maybe a hybrid. But moot until we see something to suggest better temps

@CAPE maybe the NAM wasn’t alone for this one but maybe about 2-3 years back wasn’t there an assumed way out to sea storm that the NAM had coming back to jack the eastern shore pretty much right from it getting into range? Though to reel one in from 60+ is way different than 24 of course.

If the sampling was better it would look like the NAM

RGEM is a bit more north but a far cry from the NAM.

If you look at the h5 vort you can see what it’s been trying to do over the past few runs. Check at hr24 (valid 12z Wed) and roll back 4/5 runs. Check how the energy is compacting and wanting to spin up more as it comes through the TN valley. Then compare the trend at the same time rolling back on the Euro. The NAM is like a supercharged version of that trend, probably overdoing it.

Miller B signal got stronger at 00z on the EPS and GEPS, but 06z GEFS is a bit weaker (still apparent). Temps still not great.

Far out but the only thing on ensembles with any specificity is what looks like a Miller B late next week, judging by ensembles. But we're gonna have our work cut out for us temperature wise in that time frame. Didn't include the CMC because it's keeping the low way up along the lakes so not much to show.

Pretty lackluster. But winter's almost over.

Yeah in terms of extended snow on the ground, we were really able to milk January for all it was worth. Got a lot water to freeze too. Haven't really seen that very much since I moved here in 2018. If I never paid attention to the weather I'd have probably thought these past two winters were good to great given how generally crappy everything has been since March 2018. But put in perspective, it's sad how difficult every setup has been over the past half decade plus. I am cautiously optimistic at things finally seeming a little easier with an improving PDO now, though.

Yeah the NAM does not encourage me so far

If this doesn't work out....

More h5 interaction but pretty late in the game. Need it to happen faster, then we'd be talking

Okay by 84 the low has definitely responded to the h5 and is closer in to the coast, slightly more expansive precip but not by much

To my untrained eye, ICON h5 looks better but the surface pretty much looks the same

@psuhoffman trying to bring the goods to mt psu against the models’ wills

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Have a map?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2025021606/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_14.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2025021612/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_13.png

If this doesn't pan out, next thing would be the 25th timeframe. Precip mean on 06z GFS was an improvement but temps are tough. Would need more "work." But it's about all we've got unless you put your faith backing up the early march warm up.

12z GEFS for the first time in a bit makes a decided trend SE/drier.

So yeah, losing what we saw at 00z 2/15 on the Euro seems insane. And it is in terms of outcome, but I just keep looking at BC in that specific run on h5 vort and compare it to our fail runs, and I'm less shocked. Just check out the little piece of the TPV that links with our storm. I'm sure this is too reductive and there's plenty other factors to consider, but that was a big part of why an impressive phase was even on the table. So while it seems insane to lose a storm like that on most guidance just 4-5 days out, ask if it seems insane to lose a tiny little TPV link like that 3-4 days out. Such a minor thing. Barely a blip in the weather in BC. But means much more downstream.

Yeah it is indeed just RGEM 12z essentially. DC northward shutout, ignoring any snow tv that might come in behind.

There's technically more room in front at 72 but it's slightly faster than 06z so probably a wash in terms of how much it can take advantage and salvage a thump.

One potential positive on the CMC is the TPV isn't pressing as hard in the northeast but there's still nothing really interesting happening out west so I don't think it's gonna help much