baltosquid

Yeah that is the period to watch until a pattern shift. Definitely a lot of rumbling about some sort of wave rolling through. But the blocking situation or whether we get a good 50/50 or not is just super far from getting resolved.

1 minute ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’m not sure why LWX added a 40% chance of snow Monday night into Tuesday in my forecast today? Is any model even showing snow in this time frame?

Some light front end stuff has been shown for the storm that’ll roll through then. Accumulations doubtful.

Also the AIGFS had a similar solution. It actually kept the storm under us and there’s a nice coastal but base state is still too warm, probably would be a mixy messy thing.

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z GFS is a valiant attempt but it's too warm

Yeah strikingly similar to yesterday’s 06z but we just don’t have the Atlantic side of things as buttoned up as we did on that run. High was 10-15 hPa weaker. Need to get a good traffic jam going, and then the general shortwave progression (strong sw, perhaps big cutoff rolling through the southwest and central US) would have ended much better this time.

I didn’t know the ENSO thread had weather influencing capabilities

GOOFUS may be flirting with an entry for the digital snow thread for new year’s lol

Potential dusting/snow tv on the 23rd on the GFS. That window hasn't really lived up to my interest in it, as the heights to our west just became too hostile for something to really develop even though we still managed to scrape some cold out of the situation. But flakes would be nice.

The GEFS really wants a storm over the central CONUS, destination unknown! Extremely evident even on just 6hr QPF at over 200 hours. So the storm is there, it just does not know where to go with it once it gets spun up!! 

I still am intrigued by the 22-23 period even though the GFS op lost the little event it had at 12z. This feature leading in sliding off NE is getting better for such an event, improving the mid level flow over us for something sneaky:


 

Temps by the 23rd are getting better as well:

Precip for 22nd into the 23rd, not as strong of a trend but at the very least the GEFS is not screaming "dry."

The ingredients aren't just on the GEFS but I am too lazy to get GIFs for all of them given pivotal's beta GIF creator is borked so I can't do off hour stuff for the euro and... it's a lot of work to invest in when it probably isn't gonna happen!

For now I think I just want to see things trend colder for Sat/Sun. Easy to pick out the mid level trends for that, and it's the first requirement to meet for this to at all be possible.

2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

GFS w snow next Monday 

Yup, once again it sets us up with cold from the passage of the lakes low and sneaks in some precip to take advantage shortly thereafter. This really looks like our only long shot chance at a white Christmas if we steal the event itself and hold off enough heat so… may as well track!

That lakes energy around the 20/21 seems like it could be the key to a quick little thump in the ensuing days. Wanna see that move souther/stronger and keep us colder. Then just make the 06z GFS progression a bit better and we can get a thump…

So much graupel. Was very surprised by it. To be honest this is just a repeat of the last storm, with a few tenths more accumulation. That also had lots of graupel mixed in here and struggled to get rates going.

I just measured on the deck railing. I had about 0.9 inches, probably someone in Canton could measure an inch if they found a better surface. Lots of graupel it seems.

Another band goes green to yellow… literally just to the south of me. There’s only one band left before the back end, idk if we reach an inch here.

There’s not even an inch on my deck as I wake up. Just a coating. We got screwed between bands. I had that feeling we’d end up in a bad spot and of course, it found a way for Baltimore, as always. 
 

Still raining in Baltimore. Hope it changes soon. Going to bed and crossing my fingers for a nice surprise in the morning.

Radar activity picking up around the city, probably will drizzle at first. Hoping to see flakes soon though

It seems like a big difference maker for 95 yet to be resolved is gonna be how early it can get snowing in earnest - heaviest band seems confidently placed a bit to the NW of 95 but whether that is a 2 or more inch drop off or just half-to inch drop comes down to whether we get a good start in the early hours or if that is a loss. Hoping the met talk in here about shallow warmth pans out and it does indeed get going quickly!

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO went the wrong way a little bit but still fine if you have expectations in line. Definitely doesn’t lose precip to rain. 

Idk, I’m starting to feel a Baltimore screw job in my bones. Ratios are gonna be worse than 10:1 I feel. I just struggle to believe the GFS or Canadian/RDPS when so many mesos want to favor north. And now tick north/drier on the euro.

12z CMC is largely unchanged

RAP 15z is a bit north

I'm a little worried about some models running on the north end of the envelope we've seen, I think at this point the fail case for 95 is temps come in a tad high and a slightly overamped storm screws us with too much rain in the early morning to get much. Fingers crossed we see the GFS or something like it pan out...

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Last 4 runs. Keeps expanding and filling nw. 

Thickness lines descending to our west and rising to the east run to run, nice. Hopefully we are close enough that doesn't become a bad thing where temps become more of an issue (but you'd have more insurance than us down here).

Yeah definite improvement from GFS, bigger shield, more precip to the border, better jack for 95 from Baltimore to NE. Slightly better for DC

GFS looks very similar to 18z through 27. Looks like a slightly more organized interaction with the TPV, maybe that juices it slightly, more coastal-y?