baltosquid

The hamsters doing the math on that run should be sacked.

How cold for how long to get some legit icing on the bay?

Absolutely massive glut of cross polar air
 

20th is intriguing but that cold press is so insane I'm not sure if there's any room for the GoM energy to do what we need

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

GFS goes bonkers with the cold after the storm.  Single digits for lows and highs in the teens the next day.

I don't want to touch grass until March

Just now, H2O said:

Fuck tucking. This ain’t Buffalo Bill. Just snow and give everyone something

In total agreement, but if we can maximize here then holding snow cover through to the potential cold look reload in February is on the table... keep the ground white!

Low really lurches towards the coast at 120-123 on pivotal... is this a potential tuck situation? I don't trust the backend with the low far away. Never seems to work - but in this case we'd get hit nicely with warning level snow beforehand, so not relying fully on the back. But if it can tuck and chill for just a sec...

If we continue to trend like this in the Mississipi river valley, we can definitely score quite well.

GFS notably colder at the surface for us at hour 90. Just have to hope it's not an indicator of suppressive forces

I do fear the dwindling hours. Not that it's an insurmountable adjustment (in fact it's extremely within reason to adjust to a win), but it does feel like one or two bad days of runs would leave us statistically unlikely to see the kind of changes necessary to get a nice event.

A day's worth of GEFS trends. 00z still an improvement and appears to have done away with lots of ultra suppressed members given the clearer precip and MSLP presentation, but the bulk of the tracks still have some work to do.

Low came out much clearer in mslp anomaly on this GEFS run.

Early in the GEFS run you can see some more trailing s/w action, hopefully portends another step towards the Euro.

Definitely moving in the right direction but the GFS is stubbornly holding on to a later organization.

It feels like that s/w needs to get a bit more interplay with the vort, still too slow to consolidate something for us. But at least the piece is there; one more element brought in from the euro's take on it.

Does seem further SE though. But pretty similar.

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

18z GEFS really doesn't have much with the 16-17 storm. 3/27 members it looks like.

good old fashioned model war over this one, hopefully GFS op bleeding to Euro progression signals a coming surrender though.

Also for the 20th, precip on GEFS indicates the GoM is going to spin something up.

Obviously as depicted it's OTS but given the beautiful bigger picture, hard to complain at this range... good to know there's potentially energy around, then got to get it in our neighborhood.

Baby steps. Still reeling in the precip field from the sea.

Intrigued to see how GEFS will pick up on the euro idea. If the OP is starting to cave, should hopefully see some nice members at least.

Trend is friend! Trend is friend! Trend is friend!

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Pivotal free gives snow depth for EPS:

Would love to see the members on that, to get a spread that good on depth maps in particular is encouraging.

IF Tuesday is going to be something, the bar for me is simple - drop enough snow to survive the relative warmth Friday (a bit Thursday too) and keep the grass covered! Then we can get into "the look" period with even deeper cold and lock that snow cover in for a bit... not accounting for any added snow!

Didn't realize it initially but GEPS has some real cross polar flow in the picture for the 20th, ridiculous cold.

You can see the trending signature on the precip map of the storm amping up off New England. But definitely more juiced overall even before that, hopefully that trend contributes to it coming in a bit more NW over time.