baltosquid

Radar looks like it's setting up one last hurrah for Baltimore, snow's picking up again. Just hoping for some more broad accumulation, but almost certainly staying under an inch.

Snow's picked up a bit in Canton. Still no accumulation on pavement/sidewalks, just cars and grassy surfaces. But I get to do a couple errands in the snow at least, so that's a nice treat.

In Canton, Only cars topped so far. Tiny flakes. Need some sort of band to come through or this will be a bust.

FWIW, HRRR 01z looks like more QPF rather than less, or at least a similar amount. Definitely not the disaster the NAMs were.

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Where do I initial? Full signature at the bottom I assume?

6z Euro is a nice 2 inch strip along 95, 1-2 NW of 95, trace-1 SE of 95

00z NAM does not look to be an improvement, for what it's worth. Jumped back to a 12z look at hour 69. Lots of energy gets strung out.

Looks like if the Mexico crossing vort can link up with the NS energy better (as it has been trending on the GFS) we could maybe get some nice Gulf energy to juice things? Too far off to say if it'll have lots of moisture or not but definitely like the potential to tap some warm water energy.

Nice trends.

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Man ice, then weekend snow?  

Shouldn't have any trouble sticking to an ice rink!

This model is living in weenieland

Another model question... what is the GFDL C-Shield? Just more FV3 experimentations? It says snow depth post-storm will be 2-4 inches for Baltimore 

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

For clarification...is this the same "FV3-GFS" that came out a few years ago?

It's all based on the FV3 core now, global included. FV3-HiRes, if I am not mistaken, is an in-development mesoscale model based on the same physics as the new GFS that will eventually supersede the NAM and be the basis for mesoscale ensembles. But I could be dead wrong, I don't really get much up to date model development news.

Euro makes the coastal out to be a high end advisory result for those in the right path, but not super widespread. But everything’s picking up on a wave taking some sort of path around the area in that timeframe, more importantly.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Doesn't have to be that complicated. Euro lags because the weak slp wave running it. Are we sure that's the correct timing? What if things get strung out an the final wave lags? Front progression or lack thereof when it counts has something to do with a small synoptic feature timing. I can't count the # of times we "thought" we knew how a boundary setup is going to work in the mid range only to get surprised in the short range (72 hours or less)

True, I have been thinking today that the opening act is close to lost but there’s a lot of run to run variation on the western end of things. And even for the first portion, this was an entirely different setup, but I think the early January harsh cutoff storm was reeled in on even shorter notice. There’s at least some hope!

Coastal picked up by euro afterwards at least, not very strong though and temp concerns.

Depending on how much snow you’re dead-set on, you’re gonna need at least a couple hundred miles’ shift SE. Even more if you’re holding out hope to get the Thursday night stuff rather than just a small Friday piece. Can’t say it’s impossible, but I’m near the point of rooting for the euro solution over getting stuck so close yet so far with an ice storm, just to avoid that nightmare of a commute for myself and everyone else.

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

^ For 3 days maybe

Thank goodness 2 of those days would be the weekend

Looks like almost an inch of freezing rain for the I95 corridor… big yikes. Could wreck evening commutes. Edit: and morning commutes too potentially but hopefully it won’t be piling up on the warm end of the event.

At this point I wonder if I’d prefer to see things more inland lol, we keep leaving snow on the table with things trending to our SE with the exception of that Harrisburg hauler. Feels like the playbook this year has been “op runs sets a storm up off shore in med-long range, it trends in, then trends out”

Feels like we’re still deep in the screw zone in Baltimore… the amount of flakes falling is a bit higher than it was an hour ago, but it’s still only dust. Only a grassy surfaces and car topper event so far. Just hoping we can cover the grass by tomorrow at this point but I am not convinced that’s in the cards. Seems like we might get the very marginal dark greens (looking at COD radar) soon, so let’s see if that can turn our fortunes around.

Snow petering out in Canton for now it would seem.

Snow's picked up in Canton. Feeling sufficiently wintery to pour a Lost Generation Stout. Radar looks to be improving but I am worried about getting stuck in between of the two stronger bands around me, hopefully the stronger stuff fills in here, too.

Light flakes in Canton.

GFS over the last day. Too little too late to help west of the bay to any large extent I think, but if the h5 keeps trending like so I imagine the coast would be more likely to achieve the high end of the forecast as we transition to the coastal low portion of the event.