baltosquid

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

someone once said it was too broad in general with its precip distribution but it definitely phased the streams sooner and was more amped with the southern low

Yeah too different at h5 to just be a broadness thing. Guess we’ll see if it’s on to something soon enough. FWIW the deterministic euro also put the energy much closer to phasing. Just not as much.

Euro AI losing its deadliness on this threat in such a manner would be diabolical.

Really doesn’t need to be that much colder and wetter to at least get the metros both into something respectable for the setup. And something has really changed in the last few hours clearly, so who knows? I’m of the belief that whatever changed isn’t likely to be fully handled on models in just 1 or 2 runs. Could go either way with further adjustments but I feel optimistic we can bring a few more people into the game.

This thing is gonna bait us so hard, isn’t it

Starting to get enough melt actually flowing off the piles that there’s concerning icing on most surfaces. Most of the refreezing fears here did not really materialize I think due to the melt just refreezing onto the glacier, until now. That, and maybe the melt is finally overwhelming whatever salt content was left from the first days.

24 minutes ago, high risk said:

             The mean has very limited value at this range, because a few snowy ensemble members can skew it.    The probabilistic output is far more useful, but I'm not sure how easy it is to find that on the web.

GSL’s DESI has operational NBM. 13z has DC north at 20-30% chance of >3” of snow. Richmond and north ranges from 30-60% chance of an inch, better chances north.

EPS and EPS-AIFS deepened the trough again.

It looks like a front for the 4th/5th now but tbh it is going deeper and deeper on the Euro AI, its ensembles, and the Euro’s deterministic ensembles. The spoilers to me are the ridge being too far east (again) and a possible lakes low. Given how noisy the NS has been I think the latter is movable in both a good and bad direction. The ridge feels like it will be more stubborn. But I think there’s upside here.

Trailing wave is damn near right on top of the storm at game time on the GFS. Tbh there's little other way in my mind this comes north besides that trailing wave helping us by bringing it north through interaction. So... keep speeding it up and see what happens imo. Doesn't seem like the trends are favorable to it slowing down anyway.

UKMET looks improved with the lobe early on but it has been so far east for this threat that it probably needs a really big improvement to get close to us

That’s a good chunk of the way towards what we would need on the CMC.

Great time for Dr. No though

You can run the trend over the last few days and see the revving up that put us back in the game and the subsequent revving down. It’s not a weak trend at this point. Leaves us hoping more for a sudden jump now than a slow trend given how close we are to the event. Not impossible but feels like we only win if there’s just something out there the models suddenly latch onto, rather than tiny adjustments on the existing solution from here. At least, that’s the case if the Canadian, Ukie or Euro don’t show something now. Preferably more than one of them.

Overall the ICON-EPS moves east and looks suppressed, although there are some definite tucks in there too. Hopefully the GFS up next doesn’t nod to the Germans.

ICON too positive unfortunately.

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So what's making this one boot it out? Lol Wondering if seeing a transition from boot to pull is still possible here...

Too far west. But too far east to give room for the energy to tilt and climb far enough on its own. It either needs to hang back in Montana/Idaho (ideally even further maybe) or drive into the Midwest even faster so the ULL can rotate counter clockwise around that influence, pulling it north and towards us in the process.

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

I generally have no idea what I'm talking about but I have noticed that on recent runs and I want it to go away 

We definitely want it to go away. Good thing is the timeframe that shows up is further out and much less trustworthy as far as the NAM goes. The lobe not extending and stalling as far west is more concerning and can fail for us all on its own, though.

Yeah the lobe was a nudge east early but hr60 on it really starts getting moving too fast for our purposes I think.

It looks like it may just end up even stronger but I’m not sure if the track will change much, in our favor or otherwise

Also FWIW on both the EPS and EPS-AIFS the possible kicker looks to be a bit slower than 00z

EPS looks a bit better. Members getting closer.

1 minute ago, Huffwx said:

Issue iwth ICON and other models is it catches the low but H85 low is out to sea on the baroclinic zone-- no way to transport any moisture back. 

 

Air is so dry, dynamic can ring out a few fluries? 

This is what happened a few weeks ago. Great h5 pass devoid of moisture transport.

I think the ICON was a bit better at first but it struggles to go neutral anyway despite the west nudge so not much different.

My strategy has been wedge the shovel under it to break off a chunk and carry it away by hand… thick gloves are worth their weight in gold. Not a lot of places to pile this stuff though!

Clouds associated with this band of flurries are rolling in. Picking up a little. Gorgeous out. And dangerous!

Pixie dust light snow in canton