baltosquid

By 42 that's all she wrote for the subforum pretty much. Seems like a very similar run, a little bit worse. Started out looking okay but the storm just moves too fast.

Okay so by 36 a clear problem has arisen; it just gets pushed out too fast. Even with a marginally better low placement, we end up missing out on more of the coastal it seems since it scoots.

Anyway... euro through 24 looks pretty decent, better precipitation up front and low placement. Seems like h5 was marginally better. Not gonna radically alter things but maybe a nice baby step towards more secure totals for the subforum.

Edit: Doesn't seem like much of the coastal snow will have any shot of getting west of the bay at 30, though. Just dries up too fast. Always good to be skeptical of the coastal snow...

We might reach climo in Baltimore this year which is a nice change but until we finally break the warning criteria drought, can’t go better than a C! Hopefully if we get into a boundary runner setup, we have enough tickets in that lottery to make one score like the GFS depicts. But it’s a long way away, say your goodbyes to it before the 12z…

If the GFS ends up caving in the morning after a run like that, it'll have "Flowers For Charlie" vibes.

FWIW the h5 look catches up with 18z in many respects by 54, but by then it's too late to help us and is still further east, and the low has already gone well wide right. Bad run. No Jaws.

It's not HUGELY different from 18z at 45 on h5 vort look, but the large majority of ways in which it is SMALL-LY different are bad. 

Looks like negative changes through 30. The placement of the southwest vort isn't much different, but less interaction with the northern stream, which digs less. Unless there's a huge shift in how things develop past the Mississippi river, early returns are not looking to support improvements.

Jaws meter comes out if and only if the GFS makes a strong adjustment towards the coast as the mesos and ICON have done . Until then, gotta remember what psu said - this is all bouncing around the goalposts we already were familiar with. As for the RGEM specifically, I will probably never trust that model after the 30 something inch run it had for Baltimore a few days before that multi-day storm last year, think it was the late January one.

Apologies for any undue encouragement of banter-y jaws stuff with the meter yesterday, that creation will live here from now on, at least when the threats are as contentious as this one has been!

15 minutes ago, yoda said:

If the trough were to go negative a tad earlier and the phase a tad earlier, could we get some of those bigger amounts east of the Bay back over to us?  Or is it too late for that?

I feel like it’s too late to get the really heavy stuff our way barring a major late adjustment WNW, but I doubt it’s too late to get in on more light-moderate powder from the coastal to get a few more inches before it scoots away. 

I can't in good conscience push the needle into the jaws proper until we get the full event in range and some varsity model support, but that was a damn good run.

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What’s this rank on the Jaws scale so far

36/84 on tropical tidbits. Those numbers on the right are a score, aren't they?

There's your jaws meter, we can use it to grade the incoming NAM run. Meter and needle supplied separately below, don't run with the needle though. It's sharp.

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Well said, the jaws meter is an important scale that we might need to create going forward. Anyone want to get over into photoshop? 

Give me a minute, I've got the design in mind.

Looking at how the tail has trended across different models, it's interesting how the euro has ended up being the one most bullish about snow given how ruinous the tail seemed to be a couple days ago - the last few runs on it have actually been trending to a longer tail, but it's so aggressive with that northern piece towards the end that it ends up still being a better result for us. The GFS meanwhile has been shortening that tail for a few runs now but has not become nearly as enthusiastic about phasing as the euro. CMC also trended to a shorter tail from 00z to 12z and was once again not as big of an improvement as the euro today. As for the mesos, the NAM has been shrinking it quite aggressively and the RGEM has been less committal, jumping back and forth between short and long. If we can blend some of the north american global and meso tail handling with the euro's NS progression, I'd imagine that would be quite good. On the other hand, if the euro is right about the tail but the rest are right about the NS, then we're not gonna be hearing jaws anytime soon.

It actually makes up a nice chunk of ground on the h5 development compared to 12z by 84. Definitely a touch worse but that energy coming diving behind is doing some serious work keeping things decent.

Noticeably more positive at 72. But that northern piece is coming down now, so let's see what it can do.

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Look north for the fun 

Are you referring to that energy rushing down the back of the trough from Canada before/as it gets to the Mississippi? I want to learn what I’m looking at

Nice to see the jackpot move to MD at least! 12z has me in through at least happy hour, then.

edit: wow, snow maps look even better than I expected. King euro, please take the crown back!

Yeah it seems like we can only get this to go so far west…. Assuming the models are doing a decent job for the moment, unless there’s a legendary tuck to get it closer to the coast briefly for a taste of the good stuff, we’re just going to have to rely on a solid prelude.

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean...if the things go more euro-ish, the eye-popping stuff ain't that far away, lol

Shhhhhhhh!

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

True. However, if we were bullseyed 4+ days out, we’d all be worried about the inevitable shift west. We’ve certainly been in worse positions 4 days out. 

Yeah if we can coalesce around a euro solution today and tomorrow that puts us in a great spot if the lack of blocking helps us get a west trend in the home stretch. Not gonna get the eye popping stuff I would think but there’s room to improve if we don’t lose ground today.

Just now, jaydreb said:

I don’t know about that.  Looks further east to me. 

18z

Yeah the vort map looked a smidge better at 84 but after that it pretty much ended up at the same location, just a bit deeper and I guess the surface just ended up getting underway too too far east.

Not gonna stay awake long enough to see how it ends up but the GEFS seems to be slightly improved through 84. Probably doesn't make up all the ground it lost, though.