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baltosquid

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Posts posted by baltosquid

  1. 19 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

    This is my ignorance and weenieism talking, but is there genuine reason to believe it could continue?

    I'm personally starting to let that threat go. The window where it looked like we were moving towards a workable solution included the TPV hanging back longer in the Pac NW while a weaker lobe popped out and went on its own, plus there was a wave sliding off the coast as the storm approached to fist fight the ridging ahead of the event. None of the models show that now (edit: Operational models, that look is not entirely gone from ensembles), either bringing back strong ridging in front of the event or making the TPV come forward and phase.

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  2. It’s only the ICON, but it trended towards popping out a vort into the plains ahead of the energy for the 13th. Looks very similar to the GFS progression, less heights immediately in front of the big western blob of energy. Can’t say it is in the transfer camp until the longer 00z run verifies but that leaves only the UKMET being stingy with that vort, keeping it further north.

  3. Just now, psuhoffman said:

    That ridge position into NW Canada with a TPV lobe in Quebec SHOULD mean that energy out west cuts under and slides east...but that has not been happening recently.  We've seen this play out a lot lately.  Everyone is focues solely on the upstream causes in the Pacific.  But how much might the warmer gulf and atlantic with the TNH also be playing a part?  Pumping the SER more than usually and adding downstream impediment to western troughs being able to slide east? 

    In that reading, could next Friday’s wave, if it shoots off the coast further south, open the door for that slip to happen?

  4. To expand on next Fri/Sat, GFS trend has been pretty evident towards colder on lead-in. Over last 3 runs, freezing line has gone from being horizontal right through central PA, to reaching well into the WV apps but certainly not a strong, deep cold or anything yet. Baltimore went from 45 to 41. Energy for the storm is getting more separation from the deep pac NW vort. Little vort pops out from the lakes earlier and flattens the ridging over us some. More ridging over central Canada overtop the storm rather than all out front.

  5. If we’re dropping complaints, I’ll say that sometimes it grates to hear over and over again “not a typical storm for us, we don’t usually score this way” in the wake of a bad run… we have been on a historic streak of misses, and that includes missing low prob hit after low prob hit. I know no one is omitting the larger context on purpose; the ones who know what’s a good look or not are also the sort that probably are good at keeping focus on one storm. But it does feel like it’s speaking to a different angst (getting upset over missing one bad opportunity) than the actual angst (getting upset over having mostly bad opportunities for years and also missing all of them). Like, would I be wrong to say it’s odd (need not say the double C words) that most/more storm opportunities are razor’s edge now, atypical, or just in general may require a fluke to get through, and we simultaneously get Lucy’d on all of them (particularly the metros)? I feel like a part of building a climate year is occasionally hitting a storm you’d expect not to hit individually.

     

    It leaves a couple questions. First is the obvious “can it snow” and I am in the yes camp… but next is “can we do slam dunks?” And “can we do flukes?” 


    To the former, we don’t seem to be getting those opportunities to test that. To the latter, sure as hell not recently. If we can’t do what we’d view as a fluke anymore then is it time to move the goalposts on what a fluke is? Are slam dunks and their supporting patterns actually just flukes now? It’s probably not that bad but it feels that way from Baltimore…
     

     

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  6. 1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

    I pulled this from the PA thread but I would say the OP doesn't agree with its ensembles .  Pleasantly surprised to see this.

    IMG_4025.thumb.png.a9b6de92c690500885e0a715d3d4a735.png.c33393054d9211f3eac7534a3f4cb4c2.png

    A nice silver lining, just have to hope there's still room for the ensembles to be the leader here rather than the OP. Relatively close now...

  7. I95 seems no longer IN the goalposts but rather is itself one of the posts… needle thin path to a mostly snow event may remain in the realm of reason. But if the incoming euro is bad and the runs through 00z don’t start a trend back to the good, might be exiting that realm of reason. Might be taking down the tree after all…

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