baltosquid

UKMET would be an easy win. Anyone got kuchera for that? Probably gets near max potential for the metros.

GFS gets us a coastal Saturday. Seemed like the coastal develops late but it gets stuck and dumps a decent amount.

AIGFS does have the coastal next weekend but... it is a rainer lol. Not that I put any stock in the progression at this range but could you imagine getting a perfect track coastal with this cold air and then it's rain? I shudder to think about the forum's psyche in that hypothetical. Anyway, everyone get ready to track the late week miniclipper come tomorrow.

I sure hope the RRFS MPAS core is wrong. Gets crazy amounts of freezing rain all up the beltway. It's an 06z run as it is delayed but that would be devastating.

So Canadians just didn't run for some reason? Did I miss the discussion on that? Dissemination issues?

Banding means Baltimore gets less than DC on this run but I don’t really care about that, get the wetter thump and I think it would turn out alright.

Yeah it amps more but it juices the thump which is what the tradeoff was kind of supposed to be! The CAMs just want to give us the worst of both worlds.

Pretty big nudge stronger and NE with the 850mb low on the GFS.

GFS amping more at hr12. Have to hope it at least results in a juicier thump.

Really? Didn’t know ice would be lower, figured it would be more reflective. But helpful!

Internal ratio on TT has me at 8 so I would abscond. But wish the CAMs would come around. At least, CAMs other than the FV3 lol. edit: not 8 more like 7. But I am just clinging to 6+ at this point.

Question for any mets or model experts out there. After this weekend’s storm we’ll have, as has been described, a glacier. Never really seen the kind of ice topper we’re staring down myself (at least not as an adult who has very amateur knowledge of weather) and I imagine it is an even higher albedo than just a plain snow pack. Looking forward to the next 10 days, does model thermal handling perform better or worse with anomalously high albedo ground conditions? Just curious, not thinking about this in a weenie “surely the models are underdoing cold” but rather just very intrigued by an anomalously large ice pack.

The HRRR is only starting to get to the WAA with its hourly runs now but between 13z hr17/12z hr18 VA got drier.

The WRF mesos are also worse unfortunately.

Yeah was gonna say shield your eyes on the MPAS cores… could be the worst of all of them

Pretty much what we’re all chewing on right now. Basically comes down to the primary going crazy and blasting our column with warm air. It wouldn’t be the first time the NAM is wrong about handling primary vs transfer if it pans out better for us, but it is concerning it is sticking to its guns this close to game time.

FV3 still one to hang on to but it came down a bit with snow totals (except NW crew) all the same. 8-9 for the metros on kuchera vs 10-11 last run.

This frankly just goes back to when the NS energy jumped way west early in the week. The one time we were happy to see the NS being messy it cleaned up its act and amped this thing. Of course. One thing I do think is weird though is if that’s the case, why is the NAM and nest so paltry? I feel like if this is gonna juice up, then we should be getting better WAA snow.

HRRR started a bit wetter it looked like but got drier as things went on. Probably part of why it lost thermals faster too. Edit: this kind of is where my thinking is now - barring a surprise evolution, we just need prodigious rates to hold off the mix line as long as possible. Bully the warm nose for an extra hour or two and we boom. Fail to do so and we flip in the mid morning and end up on the low side.

I think there’s definitely a chance that transition frame on models from snow to sleet is more of a low ratio snow hour if the warm nose ends up being thin. Eventually it will change for sure but could eke out more snow that way. More likely the further north you are. At some point the changeover line will move more NE/ENE and places along it at that phase of the storm probably fare better in terms of getting a true mix rather than a full changeover.

One of the big differences is a not insignificantly stronger 850mb low on the NAM… I feel like I’d trust the euro more on low placements and strength. Temp profile goes to NAM if those are pretty much the same but they aren’t in this case. Also I feel like I trust the euro QPF over the NAM. But I haven’t been looking at these models as long as many of the people here…

I’ll be honest, if Baltimore fails to get 6 inches of snow again I’ll be pretty bummed. I know that technically it would count as verified warning since sleet goes in the snow bucket for measurements and would bring things above the mark, but in my heart I know it would have been a missed opportunity. Really hope that wet, high ratio goodness the euro is spitting out comes to fruition.

RGEM looks like it is maybe a touch colder. No huge change. Totals very similar

ICON looks prepared to amp more at hr36