baltosquid

Canadian is also very similar to 12z. Maybe a hair drier.

RGEM is worse. Shame, first letdown of the 18z-00z revival campaign

Yeah only hope is our wave just does it on its own, nothing to work with ahead of it.

Still just too dry as you go further north. Beefier precip to start the event fizzles in MD. But that can hopefully continue to trend better.

Yeah it's gonna be better, maybe a fair bit.

ICON looks maybe slightly better very early on. Confluence maybe a bit better for us and the energy is slightly more consolidated.

On GFS It looks like there’s a piece of energy that has dove in over the past few runs from the lakes/midwest which is helping us. More interaction seems to be helping it spin up some.

Good move by the HRRR but still south of the euro. Also at long range for that model. However, good changes were visible h5 early on

Just feels like a tick south, even minor, is a pretty bad sign when the thing ticking south is the only model that had really been fully in our corner on this one. I’m not expecting an inch personally. Half inch is what my gut says, and that is wavering. Hard to trust something this marginal to come through.

Sure, it's supposed to melt, but you know what I say? Buffalo didn't have the guts to leave their giant 2014 snowpile undisturbed. We can build the mythical summer-surviving snowpile here, if we ever get enough snow...

Absolutely! It’s another “thing to watch” and I think we can say AI models are going to be consequential but of course never perfect and will have their own shortcomings. Super eager to see more of these models though. I wonder when we’ll get a mesoscale one - I figure that will take a bit longer since hallucination probably will be worse.

Something to chew on w/ regards to AI. Really had a good idea of the debacle from a long way out. We’re a bit beyond this range looking towards the 28th, so the current AI depiction has some more noise to work through than shown here around hr192, but we’re probably not far from the AI latching on to a credible idea of progression. Maybe even by Friday.

GEFS getting more of a coastal look with the 28th but too north and warm at this point I’d say. EPS has a similar location but less precip. GEPS still seems to have a lot of variance.

Kinda looks like it’s not a Miller B anymore judging by the AI and EPS. Maybe a hybrid. But moot until we see something to suggest better temps

@CAPE maybe the NAM wasn’t alone for this one but maybe about 2-3 years back wasn’t there an assumed way out to sea storm that the NAM had coming back to jack the eastern shore pretty much right from it getting into range? Though to reel one in from 60+ is way different than 24 of course.

If the sampling was better it would look like the NAM

RGEM is a bit more north but a far cry from the NAM.

If you look at the h5 vort you can see what it’s been trying to do over the past few runs. Check at hr24 (valid 12z Wed) and roll back 4/5 runs. Check how the energy is compacting and wanting to spin up more as it comes through the TN valley. Then compare the trend at the same time rolling back on the Euro. The NAM is like a supercharged version of that trend, probably overdoing it.

Miller B signal got stronger at 00z on the EPS and GEPS, but 06z GEFS is a bit weaker (still apparent). Temps still not great.

Far out but the only thing on ensembles with any specificity is what looks like a Miller B late next week, judging by ensembles. But we're gonna have our work cut out for us temperature wise in that time frame. Didn't include the CMC because it's keeping the low way up along the lakes so not much to show. Pretty lackluster. But winter's almost over.

Yeah in terms of extended snow on the ground, we were really able to milk January for all it was worth. Got a lot water to freeze too. Haven't really seen that very much since I moved here in 2018. If I never paid attention to the weather I'd have probably thought these past two winters were good to great given how generally crappy everything has been since March 2018. But put in perspective, it's sad how difficult every setup has been over the past half decade plus. I am cautiously optimistic at things finally seeming a little easier with an improving PDO now, though.

Yeah the NAM does not encourage me so far

If this doesn't work out....

More h5 interaction but pretty late in the game. Need it to happen faster, then we'd be talking

Okay by 84 the low has definitely responded to the h5 and is closer in to the coast, slightly more expansive precip but not by much