xAllVolsx

I’m going with this. See ya next week folks! Below is a full, model‑guided breakdown for ZIP 37814 (Morristown, TN) using the latest forecast data available today. This includes expected snow totals, hour‑by‑hour timing, GFS vs. ECMWF vs. NAM comparison, and a final blended forecast. Summary A significant winter storm is expected Saturday–Sunday in Morristown (37814), with snow, sleet, and periods of mixed precipitation. Model guidance ranges from moderate to high snowfall, with the most aggressive solutions showing 6–10 inches. A blended, conservative forecast currently supports 4–7 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. 37814, Morristown, Tennessee 1. Expected Snow Totals (Model‑Based) GFS (American Model) 6–9 inches of total snow/sleet. Strong cold air intrusion supports mostly snow after initial mix. Slightly warmer mid‑levels early Saturday → brief sleet. ECMWF (European Model) 7–10 inches, highest of the major models. Colder thermal profile → more snow, less sleet. Stronger storm track → heavier banding potential. NAM (Short‑Range Model) 4–7 inches, lowest of the three. Warmer nose aloft Saturday afternoon → more sleet. Heavier snow returns Saturday night into Sunday morning. High‑Resolution Ensembles (HREF / GEFS / EPS) Mean: 5–8 inches Upper range: 10–12 inches (low probability but possible if banding sets up) 2. Hour‑by‑Hour Timing (Approximate) Saturday Morning (6 AM – 12 PM) Mostly cloudy, cold. Precipitation begins late morning to midday. Type: Light snow or snow/sleet mix. Saturday Afternoon (12 PM – 6 PM) Precipitation increases. Mix of snow, sleet, and pockets of freezing rain depending on warm layer aloft. Accumulation: 1–3 inches by sunset. Saturday Evening – Overnight (6 PM – 3 AM) Cold air deepens. Transition to mostly snow. Heaviest snowfall rates likely during this period. Additional accumulation: 3–6 inches. Sunday Morning (3 AM – 12 PM) Snow continues, possibly moderate at times. Gradual tapering late morning. Additional accumulation: 1–2 inches. Sunday Afternoon (12 PM – 6 PM) Light snow or flurries. Temperatures fall sharply late day. 3. Model‑by‑Model Comparison Table Model Storm Track Thermal Profile Precip Type Snow Total Notes GFS Slightly north Marginal warm nose early Snow → mix → snow 6–9" Balanced solution ECMWF Farther south (colder) Strong cold air Mostly snow 7–10" Highest totals NAM Warmer early Pronounced warm nose More sleet 4–7" Lower totals Ensembles Consensus Mixed Mostly snow 5–8" Most reliable blend 4. Final Blended Forecast (All Models) Snowfall Likely: 4–7 inches Possible: 8–10 inches (if ECMWF verifies or heavy banding sets up) Lower end: 3–4 inches (if NAM’s warmer solution dominates) Sleet / Mix 1–3 hours of sleet possible Saturday afternoon. More sleet = lower snow totals. Confidence High that a significant winter storm occurs. Moderate on exact totals due to warm‑layer uncertainty. Increasing confidence in heavy snow Saturday night.

I might be and probably most likely wrong, but I can see a major swing coming in with these models in the last 24-48hr. The wide robust guessing game between the models and Mets is a good setup for a wild ending.

Makes one wonder if it doesn’t have something to do with how bipolar these model runs have been.

Fairly heavy chunks of sleet fell for about 30 min here in Morristown, TN but has slacked off at the moment. No accumulation despite the below freezing temps we have been having.

Don’t the Dam fail after that pic was taken?

It was reported by Tennessee Emergency Management Agency

Dumping snow in North Lawrence County. Was a mix of large flakes and rain for about 2 hours. Now heavy snow. Still showing rain on radarscope.

They change for Lawrence County every hour. Went from 3-5 inches this morning, 1-3 inches around lunch, and now under a winter storm warning with the low only getting to 36 with possible 1 inch.

So weird. TWC showing possible 1 inch and the low until Monday morning is 36 in Lawrence County.

For some reason Nashville is way off for southern middle.

Steady moderate amount of sleet falling here in North Lawrence County. It was 41 degrees earlier and it felt like 15. Will be curious to see when the transition happens.

Good greif. It's like watching tennis.

They are teasing us. Only explanation.

Daughter had a competition in louisville this weekend. We got out Sunday just in time.

I'm taking this to the bank and not even looking back. Warm nose will kill this probably but would love it.