Torch Tiger
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Everything posted by Torch Tiger
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78hr hwrf has Henri around 30mi south of MVY, 972mb, moving NNW.
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NOGAPs is way west, basically into NYC
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Today, but I haven't been tracking that closely. wxwatcher007 mentioned it earlier though In addition to the Air Force aircraft that flies through the storm, the NOAA Gulfstream IV jet will also be flying around Henri later today to help assess the environmental conditions and gather data for the numerical models. It is hoped that these data will help the models more accurately predict the future track of the storm.
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Yeah, trash right now. Need that aircraft sampling
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One of the 3 best global models for TC's. I was #2 for a few years, right?
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Ukie is big...966 near central LI
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It's over
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August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?
Torch Tiger replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Absolutely pouring, radar looks great too. -
I saw that damage first-hand a few months later in 01, also Rita. Insane rain totals
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would be hilarious to see this thing weaken as the shear lessens
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Cravings. I wouldn't discount a period of RI and maybe a cat 4.
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One thing I noticed is that there is a stronger/more well-defined and better positioned 300mb and 250mb jet across the eastern Lakes on the NAM the past few cycles. Interesting
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August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?
Torch Tiger replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
Basically perfect out there. -
Yeah the center probably won't get that far west. Regardless SST's easily support a major hurricane east of that rocket fuel and the western edge of the storm should be over that area.
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If this is a Cat 4 or bordering 5 near or after it makes the turn. (highly unlikely but not impossible), we could be dealing with a very different situation. Let's go!
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Buoy east of HAT, near Henri's projected path. NDBC Location: 34.775N 72.167W Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2021 21:20:00 UTC Winds: ESE (120°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt Atmospheric Pressure: 30.19 in Air Temperature: 83.7 F Dew Point: 76.8 F Water Temperature: 84.6 F
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Yeah, that could be the case. Above normal SSTs and wedged within a fairly deep? tropical airmass could be upsides to sustaining itself a bit longer.
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On the NAM (lol), travels roughly 275-300 miles in 18 hours. 12z Sat- 06z Sun..looks like around 20mph or maybe a bit faster on the last 6 hours of that, though.
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You are correct concerning the wind threat, which is what most weenies crave. The coastal flooding and precip of course could be higher end, even historic
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I'm not too excited about a storm traveling ~10kt over and beyond the north wall of the GS. lol Not to say we couldn't get a impressive storm. Need a partial capture/phase and at least 15-20kt though
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August Disco 2021. Do record dews continue?
Torch Tiger replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
quintessential summer, just need that hurricane hit! -
Belle was gutted as it passed 37-38N though. 120mph to 75 in like 15 hours
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Yeah, it's not going to be a FM but it'll probably be faster than guidance shows.
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Yeah I don't think anyone wants it to stall just offshore or on the coast. we want it moving quickly and well inland
