Ruin

im so confused atm bigger models suggest nah hold up no big storm a few inchs the other models are like hold my beer. holds serve to maybe slightly higher amounts. I will say this that this storm better not up and disappear like a fart in the wind 

27 minutes ago, Voyager said:

But then....CTP introduced mixing into the Tamaqua forecast for Saturday night.

Saturday Night

Snow, possibly mixed with rain before 1am, then rain, snow, and freezing rain likely between 1am and 4am, then snow and freezing rain likely after 4am. Low around 29. East wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

So I always had a question about when it snows and rains or mixed precip with rain at the same time. we always see the cross section of all snow then snow melting then freezing again into sleet. then snow melting and only the surface is below freezing. How the heck does the cross section of that look like? ive never seen any explication in a cross section how you can have so many different types of precip going on in the same area. Also seeing it snow at 44 even tho it doesnt lay when I was younger always was like huh how lol. 

I remember the days of the king euro almost always being right in winter. its sad now that its been so off lately. GFS for the last few years is a bit more accurate but even then it throws out stupid solutions days and days on until it finally comes into some sort of good forecast. Is it me or has the reliability of models come down after they did the big upgrade to the models years back?

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Wow! What a great 0z so far!

Hopefully this locks in on tomorrow’s runs, but great trends with about 36 hours until game time.

nice to see the snow rats near harrisburg blow up from 5 inchs back to 9 plus considering all the locals are showing nothing but rain for the last few hours of the storm in the area. dunno if they were in house models or the national ones. but I havent seen the rain in the area on recent models so a bit confused. 

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

I hate when places do this. There is an investment firm that is always like “clearly different money management” as their slogan.

 

like what the hell do you differently? If I go with Merrill are they going to throw all my money into Enron? 

lol yeah 

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

My wife occasionally watches the local news with Finkbiener (sp?) and says he's pretty good. But we haven't been up here with a nail biter snow threat like this one. Idk what he's said as of now because she hasn't been watching any local news lately. 

He has an extreme bias when it comes to snow cold. it feels like he always rubs salt in your eyes when a storm doesnt pan out 

2 minutes ago, Wxdavis5784 said:

I watch em, but just to see where their bias lies.

what I dislike about abc27 when they do the intro to weather. they say your most accurate forecast . 1 where are they getting this from what agency say your the most accurate 2 what is the % of the accuracy? 

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Honestly, I  have not watched local tv for weather, when I  lived in MD or here, since PD2 in 2/03. 

fair enough I dont normally either but I just wanted to see what they claimed we would get 

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs better imby and a little cooler. No rain in s central PA.

yeah I saw abc 27 trying to say a good part of the storm would be ending as rain in the area. but I laughed at it when they showed a radar having all snow all the way down to northern MD and never showed it going to rain over south central PA. Then he was like this radar doesnt reflect my idea of the precip type. Then why did you show this version of the radar? if they are doing a different model run in house show that run that lines up with what you are saying 

39 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The second storm for the 9th or 10th always has looked for days like a cutter on the ensembles & now we are barely in Op range for the Euro & Canadian.

Our best hope for the second storm is a good front ender if the High in Quebec is strong & holds a bit.

The 12z GFS says no this run, but the Canadian says we have a chance on the front end with a stronger High up north.

honestly this is odd even the fact it was this far out ok. but having it down south or slightly off the coast to now it being a western lake cutter is very odd. considering this was the time frame where all the cold air was suppose to start pushing the storm south cause of suppression. I guess the cold air is now being pushed back another week if this this goes this far west? I mean this is a few thousand mile change 

if this thing just pushing straight north now after all the talk about suppression. it will be like last year lol. 1 thing I always hated with models they take a storm from one run off the coast and push it to be a lakes cutter. or a storm thats way south out of no where is now to far north. 

it be nice to see snow for a chance other then brown dead grass lol. tho back of my mind cant but think the 7.4 earthquake in japan could change current weather patterns. Half way jk but I have read ideas for years saying earthquakes can change the weather ie the major quake in japan years back not only shortened the day. Not by much mind you but it did. I then followed this hole down other articles suggesting that the earthquake in 2011 also changed weather systems by tens of miles of where going to go. I dunno how true or untrue that is but still a interesting read when I saw it.

3 hours ago, paweather said:

Ahhh...yeah Funcks is cool. Houlihans not bad either. 

was just at Houlihans a few weeks back chili and the cheese burger with bacon I had was not notch 

2 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

I don't know if you need to be told this or not, but it's not difficult for conspiracy theorists to make a conspiracy out of anything.

Be careful with that water. It's turning the friggin frogs gay.

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lol the messed up thing is that crack pot was right about the frogs turning gay. chemicals in the habitat when tested did indeed turn frogs gay. but then again i doubt you will look into it just saying it isnt hard to go back into records and change them if you have the power to do so is it?

30 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Eh, I was more saying that this AM's GFS had it on schedule for the talk of the last few days which was the second week of Jan.    The talk about it getting cold right after Christmas left the building over a week ago. 

I was still reading reports and watching vids of saying cold for new years with a chance a storm just 2 days ago. but with christmas rush and business I wasnt able to look to much up thats why I said pushed back 1-2 weeks cause well just 2 days ago I still saw things saying a cold ending to the year with snow.

23 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

How the hell do you get some global conspiracy out of something I did as a weekend project because I found something interesting. I don't get the logic here.

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climategate 2009 look it up im not going to link you any info but they were lying about high temps saying they were hire then actually recorded 

27 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

What the hell are you talking about?

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look up climategate leaked emails showed they were pushing temps higher then what they were actually hitting for years. it was from leaked emails in 2009 

18 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I'm just happy for many years in same location with a reasonable component record keeper and equipment. That's better than 95% out there.

The other day I highlighted the insane rain differences between stations in a 5mile radius. Eventually I went back to what I could that had records for 5+ years and with some differences evened out where some they became greater. The ones that stood out I looked at other closer stations to try to verify some and kept average reading if they were within a mile. It wasnt super scientific but I definitely saw some microclimate variations that were greater than I thought. It definitely changed my priors on how variable and persistent they can be. I wish I could find some better research papers regarding them

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didnt they also have some fudging of global numbers in 2014? where they added a few degrees to global temps and bumped up the highs for the records that were false numbers? It came out in a leaked email or something. 

8 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not much GFS support for BN temps until the second week of Jan now.   

oh so were back to the bs pushing the cold back a week or 2 like the last few years and it never happens 

abc27 not buying the idea of any cold 

3 hours ago, Jebman said:

Mahomes does not look right? Mahomes was a piece of shyte on Christmas afternoon! Son of a frackin biotch got sacked like FOUR times! That sorry team let me down! I am a RAVENS fan now! Always loved Baltimore! You don't win football games by throwing interceptions!

I kept telling people lets see how he does when he doesnt have elite fast wr's who can catch everything and he just has to throw it over the top. still has travis but he is getting long in the tooth to always throw too. Patty doesnt throw his wr open they get open he throws it to them. the wr make him better he doesnt make the wr better. yes he is a good qb but not as good as every one was claiming. I still remember first year they were riding him calling him the goat. If he loses travis to retirement or injury look out. Ive seen him legit cry 3 times this year all rdy and act very immature cant handle a loss.  

2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Which locals?

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I think it was abc27 news it was a weather guy I dont normally see 

28 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Looks like they are calling for 1.68" of rain by Thu morning in Harrisburg. It's going to be spread out over multiple days though. I get a feeling we are going to be socked in with drizzle and fog for most of the time it's not raining

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i find this so funny just yesterday local news/weather said dry for the next weeks with mild temps

local weather from the news in my area said no cold in sight end of dec to early jan looks mild and dry?

15 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

It almost seems were going through that now, "wait a week or two."

yeah it really urks me lol