Ruin

6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Actually no your average high temperature on March 17 is 51.3 so upper 40s is below normal.

Actually saw the average high temps on local weather 

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The models show colder temperatures. Could they be wrong?  Sure.   The temps are forecast to be warmer for 2-3 days due to a low cutting to our west.  Over this winter, LSV actual temps have pretty consistently been going above models temps. 

normally when temp guidance shows warmer or cold the local forecast normally almost follows that fore forecasts. can you give a explanation why they dont? Ive been watching temps on the 7 day the last 6 days and they keep showing at normal or above and then they did a about face this morning the same time frame yesterday was mid 40s now they are mid 50s. tho on the temp guidance its trying to push 30s into the area.

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

After that cutter you referenced above, it looks quite cold as of now. Fair to question anything on the longer range though. 

Actually no on my forecast it still says it'll be in the upper 40s after the 17th 18th time frame our normal high is 45 that's still a few degrees above normal and even if the temperature will be colder shortly after they show that forecast date it was supposed to be the 14th and 15 I got colder before that it was a 10th now it's the 16th through 18th to see what's happening the cold air is getting pushed further and further back and then we're sitting here March 25th all the cold weather is a couple days away and it's got to be April

28 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Looks like it's going to get into the 60's on the 16th and 17th. I was expecting it to be a lot colder this month but honestly it isn't really looking that different than normal now besides the next couple days being 5-10 below normal

Funny thing about it is you bring this to someone's attention and either they glaze over the facts they claim something else or they say you're just being a weather weenie and yet fail to actually cast blame on everyone calling for code or snow and it never happens. I love snow as much as you guys do but sometimes you got to look in the mirror and realize hey you know it is in our ear models have been wrong with the cold for a couple of years they always push it back and we get like one or two days when it was supposed to be for a week or two.

So woke up just looked up weather for the next week and wouldnt you know it local weather is showing mid 50s in the heart of the so called colder then average temps. 16-18th 55 54 51 smh. cant trust models these days 

joke of a storm mostly dry 

system looks way drier on radar 

Storm looking pretty pathetic

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

How did you have access to model runs back then?

I didnt but those who poste them did on accuweather forums for many years 

32 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Don't let some of the guys her fool you , Sometimes we get into simple patterns that make the models look like they are ok, but its not the models working out its the simple pattern . Unfortunately computer models cant handle any dynamics lol.

do you think they did better before the major upgrades in the middle 2010s? it felt like it but again models felt like they were better in the 90s 

Just now, Yardstickgozinya said:

I think what you will find over time is that there are no legit weather models for this area of the US at any range, just people that cant or don't want remember yesterday.

Oh ive been into weather for a long time models are normally all shit lol 

6 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

 Unfortunately making people think the next hecs is just right around the corner has become a profitable business for enough people and agency's now that the next hecs will always be 8-14 days out.

I agree but the youtubers I follow 1 former meteorologist and the second guy keeps showing the models it shows the area mod to heavy snow 10 hours and yet snow guidance suggest one accum is 0.9

10 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I would be very wary of youtube weather forecasters . They need you to click and comeback and they know who to trigger that reaction in guys like us.

true but look at accuweather link just outside my area I live just to the west about 12-15 mins across the river these days and it says for haarrisburg wont start till 5 plus they were showing legit models gfs euro etc 

well this shows no snow day and snow 5pm and after mixed with rain 

23 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

No it’s not overnight. It’s pretty much entirely a daytime event, which is one of the myriad problems given we’re nearing mid March. 

lol even driving by the digital alerts on the side of the high way says friday pm event

So im watching all the models on youtube these guys who do the weather stuff. one thing that really puzzles me they show models giving my area heavy snow for a few hours and mod snow for a few hours but we cant eek out a god darn inch? .9 for MDT? for tomorrow and this snow is said to go mostly over night tomorrow night?

3 hours ago, Jebman said:

Yosemite! Wow what a snow job! It would take me years to dig all that deep snow!

 

it wont take years lol

im starting to think all these model updates are not being done right no reason why older models were a good bit better are forecasting then these current models are 

thats what im saying no one knows whats going to happen they keep saying cold snap till like almost the end of march but then you see all these forecasts saying not that cold. but the way this years been going most likely not gonna have cold or snow just the way its going 

22 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Already giving up 8-9 days out. Oy. I swear, at this point the snow gods are just fucking with us and fulfilling the it’s never going to snow prophecy

honestly with how bad models are 7 days out i wouldnt even look to more then 3 days out. even then things are suspect 

2 hours ago, paweather said:

Your ruining my passion 

sorry not my intention 

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We are talking about potential snows 3-5 days away (2 snows). 

im talking about what im seeing overall like 13 16 and i think the early 20s time frame not really here. but like last nights storm we were never in the snow but i dont even think we got rain. the ground wasnt even damp when i got up at 6

I hurts me that people are now grasping at storms 2 to almost 3 weeks out. we all want snow but sadly it isnt the year  

7 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

They always do

im talking about the ones who normally dont have snow all year round also lower elevations 

9 hours ago, snownut said:

My 8th full year in the west and the cascades to my west have always had snow. 

(glaciers are common here in the 3 sisters bowls 25 miles to my west) 

So many of the higher western mountains have snow year round.  Washington State stays pretty solid snow covered in many areas. The snow cover diminishes north to south with CA mountains snow melting out "pretty" fast. 

Deep snow packs are common in June. Several mountain roads don't get plowed open until late May and usually are closed again in early November. 

I skied here July 3rd in 2017 at Mt Bachelor with 3-5 feet still above 8,500 feet   

Only in August & September are my views mostly rocky looking.   

If you love snow, moderately cold winters its hard to match the higher mountains in the west.  Lots of "snowbirds" here that go to AZ or Palm Spring areas during the long winters. The locals joke that we have 9 months of winter and 3 months of summer.  Reality it depends on location. You can easily ski in the morning, golf, bike or even lounge by the pool on a sunny May day with temps in the 70's.  And that can happen 15 miles apart! 

the mountains that normally dont have snow all year round is what im saying