Cary67

Upped ice potential. 0.1-0.3 Winter to forget

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Let's see if we get a big March snowstorm. All guidance looking cold mid March. 

 

That'll be EC time. You might get swiped further east in DTW.

Two more months of cold rain till Spring

Edit: Sustained spring like conditions 

2 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

18z Euro ice

 

Hard pass on that.

^Snowfall deficit looks right for far NW LOT

In Mexico so will probably be biggest event in my area this winter

Baum trying to reel this in

7 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

East will translate to weaker, less phased and more sheared.


.

On the other hand for it to hit central WI it has to stay stronger, more phased, with less shear. Attributes a storm system modeled SE of us seems impossible to attain the last several yrs.

^  Its coming. With a storm track over Chicago and misses NW most of the winter; will probably get that pattern change end of Feb or early March followed by cold dump(transient or more staying power?) and misses SE.

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I'm totally expecting to be in no man's land in between the snow and severe threat.  I've thrown just about all optimism for exciting wx out the window at this point.

Have to agree. Cold rain till May.

RFD sitting at 16.6" so far this year. Only a few miles down the road. RFD ended up with 21.6" total last year as points NW of ORD way below last year also. Two years in a row extreme N IL a dead zone for snowfall.

34 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

Now do GFS.

Would you like the GFS or the CFS? I do love to cherry pick on those model runs 

Models giving you seven days lead time for adequate preparations.lol

Euro and CMC dangle carrot post Valentines 

^Winter won't be the problem. The problem will be when that same six day forecast verifies for the middle of April.

On 2/5/2023 at 9:14 PM, luckyweather said:

Got all my moneys worth out of winter in one weekend. Ran the snowguns for the last time all day Thursday and Friday and built up my backyard terrain park base, should hold on until 4/1 regardless as to what temps get thrown at us. Got a couple fat bike to breakfast rides in on the snowmobile trail, fantastic conditions yesterday on one of the area forest preserves’s groomed xc trails, and went ice skating with my family on the frozen Pierce Lake at Rock Cut state park. Capped it off with an afternoon skiing Devils Head, fully open today, and made my way over to their double black run, Outer Limits and conquered it. That just leaves Warpath at Chestnut and I’ll have conquered all the IL/WI hills. The way it’s looking that one’s gonna have to wait til next winter.

It sucks that true winter conditions have been so compressed, and I’m blessed that we got what we got last weekend here in northern Winnebago county IL, I’d have never got the xc skis, fatties, or ice skates out the whole winter had we not got last weekends dump and the following cold. Whatever happens from here I’m at peace with it.

That said not gonna lie and say I won’t get some joy out of a palm killer style deep freeze in early spring.

Nice you enjoyed brief window of winter conditions. Haven't skied Devils Head in a long time ( golfed there a few yrs back). Mostly Alpine Valley and occasionally Cascade. Pierce Lake still non swimming?Grew up in that area and remember heading to Pearl Lake.

This weekend Norge event

5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

This is not what you want to see if you want a warm March-April.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

So that is indicative of a SSW causing a weakening and disruption of the PV? I was under the impression that even SSWs that do occur doesn't necessarily displace a lobe of the PV into North America. Sometimes it dislodges it into Asia or Europe.

It's 59 oz. of empathy and understanding. It will never disagree with you and provide comfort and warmth on these not so chilly winters.

It's all fun and games since AGW seems to be bringing milder winters. Wait till we start averaging 35 90F days and 5-10 100F days in the summer. 

Yes there is some glitch on my phone especially if I quote a post.

Interesting graphic showing how lame even last winter was for a large portion of the subforum even compared to this year up to this point.  Last Feb. southern half of LOT to DTW cashed in to offset those deficits.

Measured 4" here. Considering Schaumburg had 4" and unofficial reports of 8" in Woodstock, gradient must have been steep through my area.

Madison area is MSP 2.0 of the winter season

15 minutes ago, Baum said:

as of now have not heard one impressive total out of this. We've learned to appreciate water out of a turnip. And radar doesn't really depict a big influx for a dramatic uptick.

Seems to be in line with this winter