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Cary67

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Posts posted by Cary67

  1. 1 hour ago, Baum said:

    AFD:FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT  
    LOOK TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 1-2 INCH RANGE (NO MATERIAL CHANGE   
    FROM THE DAY SHIFT'S FORECAST), BUT SWATHS OF 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS  
    APPEAR IN THE CARDS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS ONCE YOU GET   
    MORE THAN 20-30 MILES AWAY FROM THE MILD LAKE INFLUENCE

    Zone Forecast:TONIGHT  
    MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR  
    NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
    LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. EAST WINDS AROUND  
    5 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.    
    TUESDAY  
    SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. HIGHS IN THE  
    MID 30S.
    NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION  
    90 PERCENT.    
    TUESDAY NIGHT  
    CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY, MAINLY IN THE  
    EVENING. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF  
    PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

    Time to put distance vs Alek in snow totals

    • Like 1
  2. On 9/24/2022 at 3:50 PM, Baum said:

    1. Models show a Oklahoma hooker 4 days out. Complete model consensus for my back yard.

    2. As the hooker organizes in the desert southwest an energized clipper rides down and lays a 4" blanket of powder down and storng winds from N-NE usher in arctic air.

    3. In clippers wake on going snowshowers blow in from Lake Michingan. 

     4. 48 hours out all models consensus 12"-18" swath of 15:1 ratio snows with winds in excess of 35 mph sustained.

    5. 24 hours out complete model consensus on a blizzard. Consensus so strong no board arguments as a my backyard as the lollipop is a lock.

    6. Blizzard warnings issued. Snowshowers begin to increase off lake as storm intensifies over Texarkana. Kansas City already shut down due to 5 hours of 2" per hour rates and thunder and lightning.

    7. Gametime. Radar lit. Winds howling. Businesses closing in preparation. Snow begins in earnest.

    8. After 12 hours of non stop snow/wind/ thunder 19" has fallen citywide. Drifts 5-6' in areas.

    9. Complete forecast verification. High spot downtown Chicago with 26" amounts due to lake enhancement. Mchenry County and Cedar Rapids IA are the lower end of the spectrum with 4" and 6" respectively. Mets can't explain the phenomenon. 

    10. As the storm winds down, another organizes over Colorado.

    Pulling out Ouija board to conjure up the winter spirit of 2007-08. Mchenry Co. will reign supreme again.

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1
  3. 5 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

    Going to be another rinse and repeat season. 

    • Warm snowless November
    • Warm snowless December - "I'm dreaming of a brown Christmas..." 
    • Hoosier starts talking futility records in snowless start to January
    • Snowy February
    • Snowy March
    • Snow in April, dear god make it stop
    • Cold start to May

    Copy and paste for 2023-24?

    • Haha 1
  4. 4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

    Took me a sec to realize why 8/28 seemed like a significant day.  Then I thought oh yeah, Plainfield tornado.  32 years.

    Plainfield and Oak Lawn are basically 1a and 1b for me as far as historical tornadoes in Chi metro, because of the amount of death and destruction caused by each.  Everything else is in tiers below that with the possible exception of the 3/28/1920 tornado that went through western/northern Cook county.  

    Even though Plainfield was F5, I don't know if I'd call it "worse" than Oak Lawn.  That F5 was based on damage to a field, not to any of the buildings, so it's quite likely that the same tornado today would not be rated over EF4.  I think the Oak Lawn F4 rating would probably hold up as EF4 though as some of the damage in Oak Lawn looked pretty extreme, at least based on pics.  Plainfield does have the out of season claim though, as it's extremely rare to get something of that magnitude at this time of year (especially in IL).

    Remember that day well. First year medical student at Loyola Stritch in Maywood in 1990. Hospital went on full alert to receive trauma patients.

  5. 19 hours ago, canderson said:

    Hey hey! Random but I’ll be in the region in two weeks - Eue Claire for 3 days and Minneapolis for 1. Any suggestions on anything to do at either or in between? Seeing the Sox vs Twins game the night we”re In Minneapolis, staying at the new Four Seasons. Any tips on good bars around?

    In nearby Chippewa Falls outside of Eau Claire is the Leinenkugel Brewery. Could do tour or just sit in their bar/ gift shop area and drink. If you golf Wild Ridge GC pretty stout challenge. I've rented a pontoon boat on Lake Wissota if you like boating. Target field is nice went to a bar downtown Minneapolis called Brits Pub. Has cool criquet lawn with seating to drink on the roof.

    Screenshot_20220814-135711_Maps.jpg

    • Like 1
  6. 29 minutes ago, tuanis said:

    7” of rain, 4 rounds of hail, somehow we didn’t flood but it came so damn close. I’m exhausted from preparing the house for water all night, and now another noisy cell pops overhead.

    Looks like worst of it skirted just north of here and hammered Lake Co

    Screenshot_20220723-082033_Samsung Internet.jpg

  7. 25 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

    Would be nice if we could share the wealth a little.  Many areas in the have and man areas in the have not categories right now.

    Hopefully some rain comes your way soon. Can empathize after our drought conditions in extreme N.IL last year

  8. 51 minutes ago, Baum said:

    should I water the flowers? Was hoping for a good soaking, but the board optimism seems to waning a bit.

    Watered the lawn last night anticipating convection weakening as it arrives here today. Wondering if we miss tonight NE as LLJ points more to southern lower MI

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