Cary67
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Everything posted by Cary67
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Too many winters have jackpot areas that seem to get hit over and over. DTW a few years back had the snow magnet.
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Haven't put alot of stock in the Canadian. Always thought UKMET better at verifying. Icon somewhat similar will see if UKMET and Euro move towards that.
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Storm tracks once established love to stay that way. Would be third system for Eastern Ohio, Pennsylvania etc.. Then another coastal on the 4th possible
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12Z Ukie
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Would take notice if UKMET shifted south. Don't think they will though
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Had enough pixie dust to cover the windshield so set a better Xmas mood
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Yeah seems to be a somewhat consistent track over central to east central IA. MSP been looking good for several runs on various models. Will see if that holds up.
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Does seem to be some model consensus for the Dec. 30th storm cutting NW of us.
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Had it cutting over DesMoines not bad.
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Interesting always thought deeply -NAOs usually had a trough position too far east of us
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Been a -AO during most of this Decembers suck fest. Not sure tanking -NAO is great for anything but clippers and watching storms for the lower OV and Noreasters. Could be good for downstate IL and Indiana though.
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As depicted the GFS front end thump band won't produce the results its showing in LOT. Will need deformation band to swing through and stay all snow to get anything over a few inches.
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Euro is bad this year but its track is similar to the GFS which gets a bit wonky late .Cut it over Des Moines reduce the absurd qpf amts by 50% per usual and good start for MSP this winter. Pattern should resume El Nino look with hopes further south in OV and eastern Ohio into the NE. That gets you to mid late January.
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Icon came in colder so far
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Beneficial rains at least. Maybe some front end ZR or snow
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Based on Euro performance divide totals by 5 and move track either 300 miles NW or SE. Even if the system came together as shown the mesoscale NAM would eventually show overrunning snow cut way down and WAA winning out with mostly rain before being dry slotted in LOT on that track.
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I think Castro means starting beyond day 7 not continuing. It was spitting rain/snow last evening and had to remind myself that was actual precip falling from the sky
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I think whatever there is of a storm track this year favors lower and mid OV and points east with little SER in this El Nino look. Eastern parts of subforum and EC and interior NE look to cash in most as they strengthen when they hit the Atlantic
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Its that window of a few weeks that gives you most of your snow
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Heavily favored to be less than 36". Only 2 out of 13 yrs finished higher than average if you throw out the blizzard of 1999. Especially since those types of storms hit about once in 15yrs. Its almost a given this year will be below normal as we close out 1/3 of meteorological winter being blanked
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Daily climate summary only thread needed. Although this thread probably shaved a page or two off the banter bitch thread.
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Euro hasn't been good this season. But then again models never look good when there's nothing to show
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At some point vaccinations/day better exceed new covid cases/day
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18Z GFS comical. Chicago looks to be in a dead spot. Systems detour or fall apart as they get close. Snow shield for ORD in full effect
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Euro OP definite hail Mary. Not much ensemble support and no other model support save one run days ago on the GFS. Based on this pseudo El Nino pattern that has established itself would favor a wave developing further east affecting Eastern Ind, Ohio, PA, and interior NE. GFS, GEM, and Ukie seem to show this more often.
