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Sernest14

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Everything posted by Sernest14

  1. Sernest14
    Next weekend there looks to be something with the models. Euro is a little slower and has the cold air I. Place more so than GFS a day earlier
  2. Sernest14
    Looks like a good shot on 2/6-2/7 GFS moves quicker with this system to come through 2/6, Euro 2/7. love the setup look for the euro though
  3. Sernest14
    Euro shows something around the same time frame from what I see. Looks 24 hours delayed though coming through on 2/7 vs 2/6 (GFS)
  4. Sernest14
    That storm totals or additional from now?
  5. Sernest14
    Would have like a bit more- doesn’t seem to be making it to the ground really now compared to what radar shows which I’m fine with as I’d rather not have rain. Good storm for the kiddos to play in though- will take it considering our last actual snow was December of 18 also depending on where you are, looks like it may be lighter as we’re on the edge of precip shield with how it’s moving so at least it won’t be rain to wash away this afternoon
  6. Sernest14
    It’s move north- radar isn’t catching it. Have had sleet and freezing rain for past 45 and I’m about 15 miles north or city
  7. Sernest14
    Anyone in short pump/west end? Looks like a heavy band coming through
  8. Sernest14
    Just started mixing with sleet in Ashland (30 miles south of Fredericksburg). At about 4.5”
  9. Sernest14
    And there’s the sleet Ended up right around 5.25” (grass measurement) - rechecked and 4.5” on patio
  10. Sernest14
    Still all snow in Ashland, hoping we don’t flip before this heavier batch comes through
  11. Sernest14
    HRRR showing another 3 around Richmond left and 4 Hanover so could push 5-7overall
  12. Sernest14
    Right at about 3” in Ashland
  13. Sernest14
    Snow line still south of VA. All short ranges had rain/mix line into va at this time already
  14. Sernest14
    NAM has more moisture filling in after the first wave compared to last few runs looks great through 15z so far
  15. Sernest14
    At 27 now (3-5 degrees lower than short range models depicted at 18z
  16. Sernest14
    Traffic cams show snow already coming down in Abingdon. Looks like nice stickage so far on grass and sides of 81
  17. Sernest14
    Took a step back- 4-6” down from 8” at 0z
  18. Sernest14
    Anyone know why the 3k NAM are so different between TT and Pivotal?
  19. Sernest14
    18z NAM 3k is ugly. Lucky to get an inch. not as amped on the initial thump and temps are higher than what we’ve seen. Per pivotal- just checked TT and that looks more in line with other models. No idea how the algorithms are so far off for the same model?
  20. Sernest14
    Actually not sure if that temp is right? Going by phone and seeing 37 on one and 40 on the other ?
  21. Sernest14
    We’re also at 37 from a forecasted 39 so hoping those 2 degrees continues to carry and helps
  22. Sernest14
    Same with Ashland on the warning still in place for 4-6
  23. Sernest14
    Thanks! I'll switch to looking at the algorithms that give us more
  24. Sernest14
    ^^NAM 18Z - why are these so much different?
  25. Sernest14
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