Sernest14
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Everything posted by Sernest14
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The ENS low placements are pretty solid. A number of them right where we need with a few outliers both ways. Only a handful are really where the OP shows or more west.
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snow depth goes form 6.5" to 2"
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Through 132 Euro looks good - need to have that low east of OBX and not come up the bay though like it just did. Still 6" before the flip to rain then back to mix/snow later Monday.
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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
Sernest14 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
It has been through Ohio but more so talking about the coastal low that i feel as been jumping around. -
January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
Sernest14 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
mostly a 2-3" storm for 95 and points ~50 miles west. Half of total QPF is rain/mix -
January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
Sernest14 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
well that run was a disaster. good thing it's been all over the place and hasn't really had any consistently. -
coastal system radar looks to be expanded more north than models depicted so hoping that is more favorable to get us some flakes
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Another solid uk and euro run Won’t let me post maps but ~7” on us and 13.5” euro
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Trending towards the euro though so that’s good (for Sunday/Monday). See what uk and euro look like for 00z- hopefully they hold
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Wow Still 12-18 hours left of snow with that and in the comma head for the last bit as well
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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)
Sernest14 replied to WxUSAF's topic in Mid Atlantic
I feel like that is one of those find the differences comparisons- identical through 90 -
Cold should be in place- very little rain IMO the way things look and have been trending unless you’re Hampton roads/va beach
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.1” haha- get the roads treated
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NAM is completely dry for Thursday for all of VA. GFS comes back a little north but looks to be very light and brief - better than 12z though
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radar so far so good - not sure if anything is actually making it to the surface but should be a good sign to at least see some flakes *fingers crossed* Comparing to the HRRR - looks like that has had a good feel for this which did bring some light stuff into the area.
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the low in Maine on the 18z 12k NAM is weaker and precipitation stays a little more together which allows for an inch or 2 in and around richmond. 18Z 3K has the stronger low more quickly and stops anything from getting close to us.
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Need this storm to move just a hair quicker and beat the low coming down into Maine
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3k nam
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Radar still seems a lot more put together and larger areas of precipitation (especially north) than what models have been and continue to depicts. Will be interesting to see how long that northern half stays together as most have that gone by now or later afternoon
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Eh, see what it’s like at 12z. Pretty big change with 0z on the whole northern half of the system. Hopefully a hiccup- RGEM running now so we’ll see if that follows suite too
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Well the Nam crapped the bed on the 0z runs. VA pretty much shut out even at the NC border for south central. Solid run if your in Hampton roads towards Virginia Beach. Nice heavy dumping for a little on the tail end
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Radar looks a bit more amped and quicker than models at this point which should be a good sign for the trend to continue
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Yeah it's a crush job from about 6-9/10 buuut if that same hits a few hours earlier then we could be looking at a longer duration as well which could up the totals a little bit before the change.
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even 3k 18Z looks much slower and less expansive 19Z Tues 01Z Wed
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Yeah I'm not sure if the HRRR is picking up on the eastern side of this storm very well. Below is 00Z Wed. followed by current radar. You can see the massive expansion east already (9 hours early) plus some heavier precip in Georgia/SC Current Radar: HRRR at 16Z to give some comparison
