Sernest14
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Everything posted by Sernest14
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ooof - 12Z suites all look bad - crazy how much have changes in less than 24 hours across the board
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Kuchera still looks to give ~5”. I think we’re starting to zero in a bit more on a 4-6” event
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Have about 2 frames of this:
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2nd wave- nothing our way on the first- should clarify, very little
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Looks like a good thump after the initial rain pulls through though
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NAM 0z seems a bit warmer to start. Decent rain (had to zoom in, not too heavy)
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I think the trends at least keep us out of the ice/mix potential which is good - even less amped gets us 4-5" if the 18z is right - looking forward to the 0z runs though. I don't believe we'll get pushed too much south - that's a lot of suppression still to happen
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Euro not great for most but still keeps us at the 4-5" range
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Seems very conservative given what the models have shown outside of the GFS. Figured that 10% would be fairly widespread with a decent area of 40%
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What's Thursday 00z to Friday 00z show for this? or do you have a link - can never seem to find.
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I thought I was seeing the opposite in regards to Kuchera ratios - looked like they were more 12:1 given that the kuchera maps showed more than the 10:1 maps
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Yeah went back to look at the model trend loops for GFS and what they have is identical to the GFS - just seems irresponsible, and lazy, to only lean 1 way when everything else says otherwise.
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For Richmond and south, yeah but 64 North and West. 1-3" in those areas where models have continuously given them 8+ just seems odd.
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I don't get how they come up with this - especially that 1-3" , 3-6" - GFS, Euro, CMC, NAM - nothing is showing this.
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Stole from other thread
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I'm thinking 4-5" on the low side - saw someone else had mentioned ratios could be more 12:1 to 15:1 as well.
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Another nice Euro hit - expands a little more south again
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Sitting about 1.5" right now (measured on car).
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Been showing 2+ degrees cooler than models. At 41 now with NAM showing 44 Now 40 compared to the 44 modeled
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4-5am looks to be the heavy band coming in- may need to set the alarm clock
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Not a drop here yet
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46 in Ashland - about 2 degrees colder than NAM had us at this point. Hopefully a good sign to allow more snow than rain
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Thankfully this is happening overnight - 3K NAM still gives some good totals - about 3-5 on a 7:1 Will likely be heavy wet snow with huge flakes which is always fun - kind of reminds me of the March storm back in '15 I think it was where we got 4 inches of that stuff but it was gone just like that.
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Euro held strong
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nice hit for the Euro! Not a whole lot of room for error though
