clskinsfan

GEFS is really nice from next weekend through the end of its run. That block isnt going anywhere anytime soon.

Monster Baffin block, 50/50 and something brewing on the Gulf Coast? Yeah. I will take my chances with that map every single time.

EPS has a decent signal for a couple of chances next weekend and early the following week. Thats about all we can ask for at this point.

18Z GEFS says the op is on crack by the way.

Which is probably better as far as climo goes for our region. We can snow in December obviously. Especially our here. But Jan/Feb are out bread and butter. Like I said a few days ago I would be fine with punting the NAO relaxing into early Jan. Prime climo for a bomb. Edited because Apparently my brain has confused the R and T keys for some reason. Carry on.

That block is unreal. I mean you cant really ask for a better look as far as East Coast snowstorms go. The block backs over Baffin as this Gefs run moves to mid month as the block weakens as well. That is probably our prime window to get hammered. A weakening block with it retrograding over Baffin just screams beatdown for us. When I was calling out the mid December period a couple of weeks ago it was pure speculation. It is starting to get more real now IMO.

Yes.

I actually like watching Doug. He is more entertaining than most of the TV weather folks. I liked Lauren as well. Shame she left.

If these looks up top end up verifying it is going to be a pretty big coup for mid-long range modelling. We were talking about this possibility almost two weeks ago now. And the look has actually gotten better since then. I would like to see a little more ridging on the west coast. And I wouldnt mind the can getting kicked down the road a couple of weeks. It would help you guys on the coastal plain a ton IF something does pop off. It is just so much better to be tracking a legit pattern instead of the garbage we have been tracking early in the past couple of winters. Hell, I think I jumped last year around New Years. The writing was on the wall. At least we have a possible game to play.

18Z GFS has a chance for some frozen on the 8th for those of us to west. Looks like a vort riding up a front kinda deal. Way out there. But something to watch. I still do like the look of that mid December time period for sure.

I need to go up there for a LE event one time. The pics of the wall of snow coming in from the lakes is something else.

Had flurries off and on all day in the Winchester area today. It really felt like winter here. COLD and windy with flurries flying is never something to bitch about.

I just posted in the winter thread. But the mid December time period looks really nice actually. MJO, NAO and PNA all look tasty for that time period. No guarantee the temps will cooperate. Especially for the coastal plain. But there could be a legit chance during that time period.

Looking at the MJO, PNA and NAO forecast I am kind of bullish about the mid December time period. The MJO looks to make it to 8 and the long range models all have a pretty strong -NAO with good west coast ridging around the same time period. I know that isnt an ideal time of year temp wise for the coastal plain. But the cold air has been decent so far this fall. And those of us to the west might have a legit chance during that period at least.

The next few days of lake effect are going to be something else. Enjoy it up there if you are going up.

33 and rain here. It was really nice to see flakes falling earlier. First flakes of the year always get me excited for the rest of the winter. Hopefully we all get to normal this year.

First flakes of the year here in the Winchester area. Nice to have winter weather back again.

0Z HRRR with a pretty nice thump out here tomorrow.

That would be right on time. We usually get our first flakes out here around 11/15. 18Z RGEM is in for some flakes in the Winchester area tomorrow.

Today I had a work meeting in Richmond. On the way home I had to get gas. I looked up and I was in Short Pump. Literally lost it while pumping my gas. Guy next to me looked at me like I was nuts. Because I was. I felt sorry for every single poor snowless bastard there.

Thing is for our area if you go slightly below average with your forecast you are golden 80% of the time. Our numbers are so skewed by big noreasters in the winters that we get them that going with an 80% fail rate is good science. And I am being serious. Forecasting here is an absolute crap shoot. But 80% of the time you will be right. Because we wont get a monster coastal. I will say when we get stalled Mid Atlantic storms it is game on though. We get buried as well or better than anyone else when the conditions are right.

Yeah. Thats reason I remembered and mentioned it above. It was a classic screwjob for us. And is one of the main MillerB's I use every winter to remind myself that Miller B's suck here.

NYC will love hearing that. They got hit pretty hard by a jumper in Dec 00. We of course got screwed. Because it was a jumper.

Really concerned about flooding in OC. Will be watching webcams tomorrow while working with angst.