clskinsfan

It is struggling with the block I think.

Dude. It is literally December 10th. And we are facing an absolutely epic setup in the next month. Prime setup heading into prime climo. We are SO MUCH better off than we have been the past two Decembers. When we knew winter was over by New Years eve. Everyone needs to chill a little bit. If we dont end up getting blasted in the next month I will stop this hobby. And I have been weenieing for long god damn time. I feel really good about where we are heading.

I must have blocked them both. Because I have seen none of it. If you told me in September that I would be looking at that -NAO block in December I would have chugged a bottle of Crown. Give me a DEC -NAO and I will take my chances the rest of the winter. And I dont care about base states or anything else. My personal experience is a cold -NAO December leads to happiness for my area the rest of the winter. The rest of you? I dont really care. But it is what it is.

The GFS took a pretty big step toward the Euro at 12Z IMO. It is still insistent on trying to drive LP's into the wall to the north. It tries to do it again after the late week storm with another cutter. Still think it is struggling with the block in the longer range.

GFS agrees with you

By the way those Euro and GFS Christmas maps look eerily similar.

Really busy at work today. Hung over from too much bock last night. I log on and see 5 new pages. Know things must be cooking. Merry Christmas. At least I wont be posting my Santa with a flamethrower gif this year.

Yes. It has been trending colder at the surface. But what I am seeing is the GFS starting to figure out that a 1000+ vort isnt cutting into that wall to the north. It is freaking out about it. If I had to bet right now I would say that storm ends up south of us. We'll see if its the stout bock talking...or the stout block over the next couple of days.

I thought you said stout bock and I was all in. Of course I am always all in.

I agree. I think the models are struggling with the block a little bit. As long as we get the PNA to cooperate and the SER gets squashed there is nothing cutting into that block. Anything that comes along on southern jet will have to stay south.

Even with a pretty crappy PAC. This plot is pretty nice. Tons of blocking and a 1040+ HP dropping into the plains, 50/50 and something popping off on the Gulf coast. The opp ends up with a cutter out of this. But I will take my chances with that look if we can ever actually get there.

Kind of crazy how different the GEFS and Opp are at 6z. The op is kind of a disaster in all honesty.

Interesting take. I have always thought that the Phase of the MJO 8-1 aligns with a cold pattern in the east during our prime climo. But the amplitude effects how active the pattern is? I may be wrong on this though.

Still a little early for NAM extrapolations. Damn shame. That is when this site is fun.

Could be too much of a good thing. Squished storms maybe? Then we are back to waiting for the relax. Still love the next 3 weeks for the majority of us though.

Dude. You just posted a map with SIX FING INCHES of pdf and called it dry......ISSUES bro.

I was referring more not about the weather part of it. Just nice to have ya'll back. But since we are weather forum and all of that......What are your thoughts on the -NAO sticking around for an extended period. It is going to be strong. That isnt debatable at this point. And I think it ends up staying with us for the majority of the winter. Through early Feb at least. We are all guessing at this point. But the MJO is going 7-8 and then to the COD. I think the Mid Atlantic ends up in the battle zone this year. Maybe no "big dogs". But I am bullish about an over climo winter for many of us. Maybe even WAY over climo for those of us with elevation. Again. Nice to have you back Ian.

Man. Been really nice to have Ian and many of the originals back the past couple of weeks.

Sorry brother cant help it.

The NAO alone wont make us win. But it is a huge piece as long as we have cold air on this side of the hemisphere. And we do. We will have chances as long as the northern jet is buckled. And it appears that will be happening for the next few weeks at least. No guarantees. But I will take a -NAO in winter over a positive always.

I tend to agree. But I dont think so this year. I could end up wrong. Have many times. But I dont think the blocking breaks down this winter. Think the NAO could carry us to a few events. Mainly talking about us with elevation. But I do feel WAY better about this winter than last years debacle.

Yeah. No chance we go quad Nina. But dont think we will definitely get a Nino either. Neutral winters do happen. And with the way the base state seems to want to be over the past few years I would probably put my money on that. We can do great in neutral Enso's though with lots of overrun events. Our area usually ends up the battle line in those winters. Probably our most consistent way to score here.

We wasted a ton of blocking 2 winters ago. But all of the cold air ended up trapped on the other side of the Hemisphere that winter. We have been relatively cold. We dont need straight out of the Arctic ball shrinking cold to snow. We just need enough.