clskinsfan

WWA up for the Winchester area if anyone besides me cares. 1-3 with 3-5 lollies. White Christmas chances looking better IMO. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 351 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 MDZ003-VAZ027>031-507-WVZ051>053-211700- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0035.221222T0900Z-221222T2100Z/ Washington-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 351 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts around 3 to 5 inches possible, especially west of Interstate 81. Ice accumulations around a trace to a tenth of an inch with localized amounts around a tenth to a quarter inch along the Blue Ridge Mountains. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, northwest Virginia and panhandle West Virginia.

You get some with the front as well Ji. Not much. But maybe enough to whiten the ground at least.

Do you have this for jyo?

Sounding is fine out here at onset and for about 3 hours it appears. Maybe we can actually snag an inch or two.

RGEM much better at 18Z with the initial slug of moisture for the Winchester area. Might even be enough to keep it all from getting washed away. Just want a white Christmas. Thats it.

Widespread -20's out in western Canada where our source air is coming from. Its gonna be cold as crap on Saturday. The NAM and GFS have backed off on the snow chances with the first wave out this way. Maybe a little sleet/ZR before the torrential rain comes. Still have a little hope for a flizzard with the frontal passage. Almost 50 in Montreal and zero in western MD. Dont see that every day.

An inch is still on the table with the first wave for the Shenandoah Valley. #WhiteChristmasOrBust

18z NAM with some Shen Valley love with the first wave. Nothing special but an inch or two is still possible.

Euro actually has a pretty robust frontal passage this run. Would probably be a pretty decent flizzard FWIW.

I wouldn't say it's out of the realm of possibility for us to exceed 5 inches out this way. We can get thumped on the front end and snag another inch or 2 with the frontal passage. And whatever does fall will stick around for a while at least.

And I have no idea why my post became 5 pages long. Fail is the name of the game.

Well we have to admit no does failure as well as the MA. Be proud. You live with Lucy more than any other region in the country. What a shit show.

Strictly based on my IMBY opinion I see nothing wrong with the GFS.

Just switched drivers. My wife took over for a while so I could salivate at that unbelievable defo band on the GFS. Unreal.

0Z GEFS:

You would if its right. the front just made it to Boston on that map. The reason they hate heavy blocking in a nutshell. The northern jet can get buckled around them.

I will give you the UK CMC and ICON and take the Euro and GFS. I will give you 3 to 1 on your money.....Wanna take that bet?

Believe it or not. That is 17 degrees warmer than 83 was in Winchester. Shows just how incredible the 83 arctic blast really was. And probably better for us in all honesty. 83 was cold and dry. We dont want snow in Myrtle while our balls shrivel.

Just look and salivate at that west coast ridge. We are gonna get hit yall. The op runs are theater. No use in parsing precip maps. Just look at the setup. It is frikin gorgeous.

Oh sweet Jesus. Double barrel beatdown incoming.

Me to. Going to OC tomorrow to have Christmas with my parents. And I am quite hammered tonight. Love what the GFS is slinging up top right now. Lets see if the Euro agrees.

Dont even care about the surface at all. That upper air look is a straight up beat down. Just have to keep it for the next week. Starting to feel a bit excited.

Just guessing. But that is about to become the 50/50 everyone was bitching about not having.

IWM (Instant weather maps) is not so instant anymore. I am done with that site.