clskinsfan

Snowshoe and the rest of the ski resorts loving the GFS through 66. They are going to get hit hard the next few days.

Thing is. If you lived where you do now you would have reaped yourself in 2016.

I always debate whether 2016 or 1996 were the best storm of my lifetime. 2016 was just unrelenting solid snow for 2 plus days. And is the highest single storm total of my life. I never thought I would live to see 40 plus inches in a single storm here. But 1996 was an absolute whiteout blizzard. Honorable mention to 2003 (PD2). Which is an underrated storm because the temps were marginal.

40 inches here. But who's counting? In all seriousness. Having both major globals with pretty similar setups is probably a decent sign someone is going to get smacked. Might not be all of us. Always depends on track. Off the coast is good for coastal plain dwellers. On the coast and I am dancing. But I think it is pretty likely there is going to be a big storm somewhere on the east coast at this point.

Man. I just had a serious flashback to the 80's from this.

Hence "pretty much". Nice catch by the way. Edit: Those higher heights are really just an extension of the Baffin block. Not really an issue. Although we are parsing day 8 maps because we are weenies. Edit #2: That really reminds me of 2010.

I will take my chances with something trying to cut into that block. I mean you simply cannot ask for a better setup for us to get plastered than this. It is pretty much text book perfection.

GEFS is straight up weenie material.

Lets hope all of the events this winter can be this juiced. We are gonna get the cold it appears. We need precip to go with it.

Trees grass and cars are ice covered. Paved surfaces are fine. Really a nothingburger in the Winchester area.

33/22. Not dropping as fast as I expected. Hopefully temps bust high. If its not gonna be sleet or snow I would prefer not to have it.

San Diego? Oh man I'm envious. Best weather in the us there hands down.

Stayed cloudy all day. Reached a high of 35. Temps and DP's falling now. HRRR has gotten colder and wetter the past couple of runs. Could get ugly I guess. 33/20

Woke up to heavy frost and an Ice Storm Warning this morning. I will be keeping an eye on those dew points today to see which model was closest. I am going to assume this will be the obs thread as well for this event. So here we go. 23/19

The 80's in general were really good as far as winter weather goes. A couple really bone chilling winters that decade as well.

0Z HRRR quite a bit warmer than other guidance. Maybe it will score a coup for once.

Yeah they just added the Winchester area into the mix. Looks like they are thinking sleet here. Dewpoints at onset have actually come down a little bit today with the 12Z runs. Mid teens for my area.

Yeah stays all frozen out here. Looks like a pretty serious ice storm for the southern Shen Valley and quite sleety up here in the Winchester area. I would obviously prefer sleet to ZR. Pretty funny "snow" map from the GFS as well. It went with a sleet bomb this run it appears.

Dewpoints in the low 20's heading into the event for the Shen Valley drops surface temps to the mid to high 20's for a few hours after onset. Could be quite a mess for a while until Thursday afternoon actually.

Anyone know where I can find Northern Hemisphere upper air maps for December of 1983? That is the king of December arctic outbreaks for me. We were -7 on Christmas morning here.

The 18Z GEFS run from basically this Thursday until the end is probably one of the best runs I can ever remember. I dont see how we dont smoked at least a couple of times if that pattern verifies.

Yeah. Negative 16-20 departures. Anything that does fall will become a glacier.

The Happy Hour GFS delivers. What a weenie run for the holiday week. We get smoked twice. Including on Christmas day.

Absolutely. And that is the crutch of this hobby. Everyone here knows so much more than your family and friends. Because we take time out of our lives to look at maps and think or prophesize about what could happen if this was here or that was there. I use anything on the models outside of day 3 as a chess piece on a huge frikin chess board. The winning pieces are there this year. Which is way beyond what we could say the past two Decembers. Just have to remember that that no matter how good your game is you can still lose.

No frikin clue man. I think typed "huge snow" into google a decade ago and that is what came up. Cant change it now.