I used to be like you. Then I watched south and east of me get hit for the past 5 winters I while smoked cirrus. I dont discount seasonal trends anymore.
The ICON should have been more tucked than it was with that 500 representation. It is really close to Euro. And the GFS took a step in that direction as well. This thing has real legs now.
Not sure I have ever seen this much of the country covered in snow before. Amazing satellite looks this morning!
https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=4412e01f2b1441d49540043555cdf22e
Just looking at the 500 progression on the Euro. The nice thing is with that setup cutting west of us is off the table. Its either we get blitzed or it misses east.