Problem with e GFS solution is the 500 pass is in the Great Lakes. We have a cold air mass. But we did last week as well. Just being honest that looks like a glorified frontal pass to me. Still a ways out there though.
Is it possible to have a closed 500 on the GA/SC border and a surface low way out to sea like that? I would think as early as 500 closed off it would tug a surface low well west. Frustrating hobby man.