I dont think any of us are saying that. What we may be saying is that nickle and dime snows may very well be a thing of the past. And we either get bombs or we get squat. And that alone is a scary thing to face.
I went huge this year. Normal Nino huge. And I think I am going to bust badly. You all are way smarter than me when it comes to this. I base everything on my past obs basically. And I dont think those past obs mean anything anymore. Things are changing rapidly at this point imo.
We'll see. There is going to be a week of suck mid month, That seems pretty set right now. Cant wait to see the posts in here wondering why the Aleutian low isnt getting reestablished after that. We need to score on the 4th or 7th imo.
I am starting to agree with you. We just cannot get cold air on this side of the hemisphere regardless of enso. We'll see how the rest of this winter goes. But I fear we wont score much snow here anymore without bombs. And that is no way to chase snow.
You are missing the point. The fact that isnt a snowstorm in the Shenandoah Valley in early January is a problem. It would be in any other year I can remember. We have been torched at the surface plenty of times heading into snowstorms in the past. Something is just different about the base state now.
ICON gets some snow out this way with next weekends system. GFS says no. But I wouldnt be shocked to see a little white rain out of that one in the favored areas.
Anyone who doesnt needs to start paying better attention to their own backyard. All of us have felt the changes. I still think we end up above normal this season. Simply because I think we end up with at least one bomb. But what is the "new" snow normal going to be in 25 years?
And its not a torch by any means. The end of the GEFS looked really flat to me. PSU was mentioning a reload. But the nice thing is the cold air is already on our side of the hemisphere before it happens. And of course it is way out there in range anyways.