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clskinsfan

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Everything posted by clskinsfan

  1. NAM's ratio's are really solid from Leesburg and west right at the start. 11-12 to 1 for the entire event. Really looking forward to tomorrow. I will be in Harrisonburg, VA until around noon. Then driving up the Shenandoah Valley on 81 to Winchester. Should be fun. 31/19 NW of Winchester.
  2. I have a question. Why is there no surface low showing up on guidance? Rotation is clearly there at 850?
  3. 2M temps at onset. The NAM is getting colder as we get closer as well. Earlier I said someone is going to get 3 inches out of this. But 4 is a realistic possibility now for the southern Valley. Fun event to track.
  4. Hi Res Euro says game on. 3+ in the Shenandoah Valley. 2 inches in the DC burbs. Nice heavy burst of snow late morning to midday.
  5. I have to work in Harrisonburg tomorrow. Looks like the perfect spot to be for this one.
  6. These are the RGEM temps at the onset of precip. Those of us in the Shenendoah Valley are looking really good for this one IMO. Most of the models are starting to juice up a little bit as we get closer as well. Someone is gonna grab 3+ inches in the 81 corridor:
  7. We are looking good for at least 2 inches IMO.
  8. 12Z RGEM is pretty tasty. 2 inches + throughout the entire DC metro.
  9. Nice little event for the 81 crew. 2 Inches would do a lot to cheer everyone up before we roast.
  10. GFS looks a lot like the 12Z Euro. I will take those two over the NAM
  11. Only people that are going to like the 18Z NAM are on the Eastern Shore. Congrats Salisbury.
  12. Hi res Euro looks pretty different from the NAM for west of DC. Around an inch and half for the majority of the area to the west. Edit: I meant to say different. I am out of practice when it comes to posting on the site due to the lack of snow.
  13. We have a chance. Especially out this way. It depends how much cold air can make it in here on Monday night. But I think we will at least see flakes falling. Which is a win this winter so far.
  14. Hi Res Euro last night had a pity half inch for those of us west of the Catoctins. At this point I just want to see a flake fall. 12Z GFS has about the same for out my way. Has a nice little 1.6 inch jack for the Frederick, MD area.
  15. Not just the EPO region but that Scandinavian ridge might be what ends up saving the Atlantic as well. Get it to press the PV a little south and it could be game on.
  16. Agreed. No SE ridge in sight. Also heading into prime climo means things can pop up in the shorter range and surprise us. After all of these years of doing this I am still convinced that the models are still pretty much useless outside of 5 or 6 days lead time.
  17. BWI: 27.5 DCA:18.5 IAD:30.5 RIC:16.0 SBY: 13.5 OKV: 35.5
  18. The line matters a ton too. When we were younger we did Carnival, Royal and NCL a lot. Whichever was cheaper. And yes. Some of those cruises were shit shows. We have since moved on to Celebrity and it is just much more laid back. Anyway. Dont want to hijack the thread.
  19. I must be pretty low than. Because I love cruising. And it is still the best value in a vacation you can get.
  20. We almost always get more than east of us during coastal storms. It is exceedingly rare when that isnt the case. We jacked out here for 96, 03 and 16. Sometime PSU and the guys up on Parrs Ridge do a little better. But generally we do fine. And our average annual supports that. We definitely do better with a storm that runs up the coastal plain though. That is true.
  21. Its usually very good. We do awesome with coastals. We can also score from LE streamers and clippers as well. This was just one of those storms where the favored areas didnt get the jack. It happens occasionally.
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