clskinsfan

33 and rain out here in the Winchester area. This winter sucks.

Especially when Ma Nature throws a Coronavirus at you like a +AO/+NAO combination. We just cant buy any real cold air this winter.

The 18Z GFS is about the biggest weenie run I have seen in 3 years.

Cobb data from the 12Z GFS run. Huge drop in surface temps from previous runs: DCA 200118/1100Z 119 16006KT 28.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 14007KT 27.4F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 15009KT 28.8F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.216 2:1| 0.6|| 0.38|| 0.00|| 0.28 11| 89| 0 200118/1800Z 126 18009KT 31.5F SNPL 1:1| 0.2|| 0.40|| 0.00|| 0.229 1:1| 0.7|| 0.78|| 0.00|| 0.50 13| 87| 0 200118/2100Z 129 17012KT 33.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.207 1:1| 0.7|| 0.78|| 0.00|| 0.71 0| 0|100 IAD 200118/1000Z 118 15007KT 27.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 200118/1100Z 119 14008KT 26.3F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 15009KT 26.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 16013KT 27.4F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.152 7:1| 0.6|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.24 0| 96| 4 200118/1800Z 126 18012KT 30.3F SNPL 2:1| 0.4|| 0.27|| 0.00|| 0.204 3:1| 1.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.44 34| 66| 0 200118/2100Z 129 19012KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.124 3:1| 1.0|| 0.57|| 0.00|| 0.57 0| 0|100 BWI 200118/1500Z 123 15009KT 28.3F SNOW 9:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.198 9:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 200118/1800Z 126 18009KT 31.0F SNPL 7:1| 2.6|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.374 8:1| 4.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.57 85| 15| 0 200118/2100Z 129 18011KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.327 8:1| 4.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.90 0| 0|100 MRB 200118/0900Z 117 15009KT 28.1F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 200118/1000Z 118 15011KT 24.0F SNOW 14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 200118/1100Z 119 14011KT 24.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 12:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0 200118/1200Z 120 14012KT 24.5F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.068 10:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 200118/1500Z 123 16015KT 26.0F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.171 10:1| 2.1|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.37 3| 97| 0 200118/1800Z 126 17012KT 27.9F SNPL 6:1| 1.4|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.233 8:1| 3.4|| 0.56|| 0.00|| 0.60 53| 47| 0 200118/2100Z 129 19010KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 8:1| 3.4|| 0.56|| 0.00|| 0.62 0| 0|100

PSU touched on it up above. It is REALLY close to big hit here. Definitely worth watching for sure.

We dont really even want it to transfer out here. We would just dry slot sooner. Obviously it could be better for you guys to the east. Especially the Eastern Shore. But for those of us to NW we want exactly what we see now.

GFS even keeps the surface below freezing in DC this run. All frozen event from DC north and west. Would be a sleet bomb after a couple of inches I think as depicted.

No one touched on the Hi Res Euro from last night. But it is an all frozen event out here in the 81 corridor. Snow to ice to dry slot. That is encouraging to see and really matches climo for these type of storms. Edit: And the 12z GFS matches it almost exactly. Decent thump for everyone on this run.

That was my biggest concern in the long range with all of that blocking on the models. Obviously way too far out there to blow a gasket yet. But something to watch for sure.

Sorry wrong thread.

It is on Pivotal.

Last nights Hi Res Euro had some ice with next weekends storm. That threat isnt over yet. The long range guidance all still looks really good. I dont get the negativity of a few in this thread. The Euro nailed this warm up a couple of weeks ago. There is no reason to think it is wrong about the decent pattern two weeks from now.

Not trying to be a deb downer. But that is a lot of blocking being modeled over the top. Anyone else worried about storms being squashed IF that verifies.

I would be fine with it just like that. No rain for us out here. Snow to ice to dry slot. Which would then become a glacier for a few days. It is a decent run.

The Australian long range MJO forecast was all in during the fall with us going through 7-8-1 in the heart of our best climo. The majority of the spaghetti plots still go through 8 but at a low amplitude. They dont make it to 1 though. I didnt keep records back in 93' 94'. I was in Loudoun then and I do remember it being very icy. I found a pretty good site with write ups on some of the worst storms of that season: https://tornadogenius.fandom.com/wiki/1993-94_United_States_winter_storm_season

If the MJO makes it to 781 during late Jan early Feb then the long range MJO models would have been spot on. I was looking at them in late Nov and salivating at the thought of that happening.

Hi Res Euro last night had a pity half inch for those of us west of the Catoctins. At this point I just want to see a flake fall. 12Z GFS has about the same for out my way. Has a nice little 1.6 inch jack for the Frederick, MD area.

Not just the EPO region but that Scandinavian ridge might be what ends up saving the Atlantic as well. Get it to press the PV a little south and it could be game on.

Agreed. No SE ridge in sight. Also heading into prime climo means things can pop up in the shorter range and surprise us. After all of these years of doing this I am still convinced that the models are still pretty much useless outside of 5 or 6 days lead time.

BWI: 27.5 DCA:18.5 IAD:30.5 RIC:16.0 SBY: 13.5 OKV: 35.5

The line matters a ton too. When we were younger we did Carnival, Royal and NCL a lot. Whichever was cheaper. And yes. Some of those cruises were shit shows. We have since moved on to Celebrity and it is just much more laid back. Anyway. Dont want to hijack the thread.

I must be pretty low than. Because I love cruising. And it is still the best value in a vacation you can get.

We almost always get more than east of us during coastal storms. It is exceedingly rare when that isnt the case. We jacked out here for 96, 03 and 16. Sometime PSU and the guys up on Parrs Ridge do a little better. But generally we do fine. And our average annual supports that. We definitely do better with a storm that runs up the coastal plain though. That is true.

Its usually very good. We do awesome with coastals. We can also score from LE streamers and clippers as well. This was just one of those storms where the favored areas didnt get the jack. It happens occasionally.

It just wont stop out here. Not really expecting much more in the way of accums. But it is still snowing lightly. Just took the dog on a nice long walk. Gorgeous out. Picked up 3.3 inches with the ull. Total for the storm is 8.6 inches. Did WAY better than I expected after the lull we had overnight. Congrats guys/gals to the east. Pretty epic storm for you all!