clskinsfan
-
Posts
10,013 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by clskinsfan
-
NAM's ratio's are really solid from Leesburg and west right at the start. 11-12 to 1 for the entire event. Really looking forward to tomorrow. I will be in Harrisonburg, VA until around noon. Then driving up the Shenandoah Valley on 81 to Winchester. Should be fun. 31/19 NW of Winchester.
-
I have a question. Why is there no surface low showing up on guidance? Rotation is clearly there at 850?
-
2M temps at onset. The NAM is getting colder as we get closer as well. Earlier I said someone is going to get 3 inches out of this. But 4 is a realistic possibility now for the southern Valley. Fun event to track.
-
Hi Res Euro says game on. 3+ in the Shenandoah Valley. 2 inches in the DC burbs. Nice heavy burst of snow late morning to midday.
-
I have to work in Harrisonburg tomorrow. Looks like the perfect spot to be for this one.
-
These are the RGEM temps at the onset of precip. Those of us in the Shenendoah Valley are looking really good for this one IMO. Most of the models are starting to juice up a little bit as we get closer as well. Someone is gonna grab 3+ inches in the 81 corridor:
-
We are looking good for at least 2 inches IMO.
-
12Z RGEM is pretty tasty. 2 inches + throughout the entire DC metro.
-
Nice little event for the 81 crew. 2 Inches would do a lot to cheer everyone up before we roast.
-
GFS looks a lot like the 12Z Euro. I will take those two over the NAM
-
Only people that are going to like the 18Z NAM are on the Eastern Shore. Congrats Salisbury.
-
Hi res Euro looks pretty different from the NAM for west of DC. Around an inch and half for the majority of the area to the west. Edit: I meant to say different. I am out of practice when it comes to posting on the site due to the lack of snow.
-
0Z GFS with the DC jack.
-
We have a chance. Especially out this way. It depends how much cold air can make it in here on Monday night. But I think we will at least see flakes falling. Which is a win this winter so far.
-
Hi Res Euro last night had a pity half inch for those of us west of the Catoctins. At this point I just want to see a flake fall. 12Z GFS has about the same for out my way. Has a nice little 1.6 inch jack for the Frederick, MD area.
-
Not just the EPO region but that Scandinavian ridge might be what ends up saving the Atlantic as well. Get it to press the PV a little south and it could be game on.
-
Agreed. No SE ridge in sight. Also heading into prime climo means things can pop up in the shorter range and surprise us. After all of these years of doing this I am still convinced that the models are still pretty much useless outside of 5 or 6 days lead time.
-
Nobody talked about the 12Z hi res Euro. But it has some front end flakes with the big cutter next weekend. Something to watch I guess.
-
First and only. Thank god. I hated school
-
The 87 winter was historic for the extreme cold into the UK and western Europe. Especially January. I am not really seeing that in the modelling. Does anyone know how those analogs are chosen? Is it computer based? I should edit this by saying it was a crushjob for our entire subforum as well. I can remember bumper sliding for weeks on end in January here. The roads were solid ice for a month. That was my senior year of high school
-
We did.
-
Just looking at the long range the STJ appears to be really active heading into January. There are a line of LP's looking to be on the playing field. Obviously that is not everything we need to get hit in our area. But at least it gives us chance. We have had our share of Atlantic blocking so far this fall. If we can keep that I would be shocked if one of those storms doesnt work out for us heading into our prime climo.
-
Just a little under an inch and half NW of Winchester. Freezing drizzle coming down now. There a some heavier returns to the west. Am curious to see if they come as some kind of frozen precip. Beautiful winter day out this way though.
-
Yep. It is weird how that happens. And then sometimes you get flurries for 10 minutes and the sky just opens up. Hope it starts sooner than later. I am ready for my first Jebwalk of the year.
-
12K NAM is interesting. Showing a pretty decent ice event for NW of the cities tomorrow evening. Would be cool to get some crust on top of the snow before the rain hits.
