clskinsfan
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Everything posted by clskinsfan
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Agreed. And one interesting thing about that is the big ones for our area are usually modeled pretty well in advance as well. Not saying it is going to go down as modeled. But they have been pretty damn consistent on who is going to get snow out of this.
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I got lucky in that I thought this was going to be squashed the entire time. I need to take that negative attitude into every storm in the future. No letdown then
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Meanwhile it is coming down pretty good out here. I think I have an official dusting.
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Amazing when you look at the 500 maps from the GFS and CMC. The LP and HP positioning is almost identical at 78. The GFS actually has a little bit stronger vort. But the CMC has slightly weaker confluence over the top. Very small changes will make all of the difference for our area.
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Still squashed. But a stronger vort this time and a much better precip field as well. It is a miss. But just barely. And SW VA gets blasted on this run as well.
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ICON looks very similar to last nights CMC run.
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I didnt want to quote that huge post. But there is no way that storm is cutting to TN with a 1040 HP right over the top of it. Unless that HP is weaker or the vort A LOT stronger it isnt gonna happen.
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A little snow shower earlier this morning. Cloudy 29 degrees.
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The NAM's are a little more than a snow shower out this tomorrow. May actually get some measurable out of this.
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They may put out some kind of advisory later for northern tiers after the 0Z suite. The 18Z runs all had some snow up through NOVA tomorrow as well.
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You know it's not good when everyone is arguing over the frikin FV3 run because it was the only one showing a decent solution.
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We are usually begging for a high 1030's HP over the top of our storms. We need that HP over Northern Ohio not Southern PA. Still time for shifts though.
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12Z 3K likes my area for dusting. May as well enjoy that because this weekend could end up being a historic screw job. Edit: Actually every model gives me some snow out of this one. The 3K is the least amount of any model. So I am in.
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This is going to be the once every hundred year screw job for our area. We have been screwed to the south plenty of times before. But it just doesnt happen in December. Although NOV was a top 5 cold for most of us as well. Who knows at this point. But I was worried about it being squashed late last week when I saw that ridiculous confluence to the north. In all honesty the models have really stuck with that theme for the past 4 days. Yes some runs relax it enough to get the precip up to us. But I am not really feeling great about this one. Hope I am wrong.
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CMC is exactly what I want out here. Not so good for the coastal plain. The GFS is not so good for anyone above Richmond. I mean you cant really have two solution any more different at this point.
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Haha. he got his ass handed to him on that storm. Among a few others. But overall DT knows winter storms.
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Yeah. for 87 Million GUARANTEED he better.
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This is kind of me as well. Speaking of football I cant beleive I am watching butt fumble Sanchez run my beloved Skins offense.
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That cant be right. Stephens City gets more than Winchester on that map. Everyone knows that is impossible.
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Yep. I definitely like the temps on the FV3 better than anything else at this point.
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It gets the precip up to DC and NOVA. Looks like a stronger storm and a bigger precip shield more than a track adjustment.
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Disagree. If the storm is delayed until Monday night we are toast. We are balancing a fine line between cold push and suppression and not enough cold bringing rain.
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Out to 144. Not a drop of ANYTHING even makes it into VA. The Smokies get smoked though.
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The one thing I am noticing about the most recent runs is the temps. This isnt really a very cold air mass. We are going to need a cranked up vort to get the cold to mix down. Double edged sword. Too much push with the cold air and it gets squashed. Not enough and we most likely have temp issues.
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Just looked at the FV3 run from this evening. Get a load of that monster blizzard in the middle of the country at the end of its run. What a monster.
