Jump to content

clskinsfan

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,038

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by clskinsfan

  1. clskinsfan
    ICON has a stronger vort an a real nice thump incoming. Has snow starting out here mid day Saturday.
  2. clskinsfan
    Ha. Tell me you arent comparing it to the 18Z GFS right now. I know I am. FWIW (Not much) The NAM has a weaker vort out west at 84.
  3. clskinsfan
    Oh yeah. It happens occasionally. That was one of the big concerns with 09-10. But everything just lined up perfect for our area. That map Bob just posted would most likely mean very cold and dry. The good thing is once that pattern starts breaking down we can get hammered as well.
  4. clskinsfan
    09-10 for sure....Then 98-99 before that. If this pattern does materialize we are in for a real treat in February. And most likely that stands for the entire east coast.
  5. clskinsfan
    Atmospheric memory
  6. clskinsfan
    Having the Euro holding back energy isnt new for any of us. I dont really remember if it still had that bias after last years upgrade. Either way a couple of inches sure would brighten up this board.
  7. clskinsfan
    Does the Euro phase at all?
  8. clskinsfan
    And just like that the GFS spits out a winning solution. Way earlier interaction over western Kentucky. I would feel a little better with the jump a little further south. But still a long ways to go with this one.
  9. clskinsfan
    Doesnt matter what defense the Saints play. Brees will destroy that pathetic Eagles secondary. The Eagles will need to score 40 points to win. Aint happening.
  10. clskinsfan
    Depends where you are. I definitely want a phase. Just not over Ocean City. We all know that anything that jumps directly over us is going to be crap. We either need no NS so we can get a moderate overrun event. Or a full phase south of us with a jump to the SC coast. We will probably end up missing this one. But I figured we would have to see NE get plastered at least once before we saw anything good down here.
  11. clskinsfan
    ICON has a weaker HP over the top and stream interaction in time for us. CMC has a phase but its way too late for us. Still a long ways to go though.
  12. clskinsfan
    Why is the FV3 such a mess? You get hours skipped and 6 hours before some panels come out. It is embarrassing.
  13. clskinsfan
    Would make sense if you are one of those atmospheric memory kind of guys/gals. I am just glad we are actually tracking something at this point.
  14. clskinsfan
    Is a -NAO dpendent on the -AO. The correlation between a -AO and a -NAO is obvious when looking at it historically. I am just guessing that a split PV causes displaced daughter PV's to force higher heights over Greenland. Obviously I dont know a whole lot. But the correlation between the two is staggering
  15. clskinsfan
    Really nice to see the AO forecast to go negative right in our prime climo period. And it appears it will stay there for a while. We havent been able to buy a -AO for the past 2 years. Look at the historic significance of a -AO on our big winters. And our big storm chances.
  16. clskinsfan
    Agreed. The majority of our huge events have the PV acting as a 50/50 with strong blocking over the top. The current model runs have the PV staying up close to the arctic. I dont know how that works out for us. But I would actually like to see the models showing the PV diving down into eastern Canada at some point. If we get the strong -NAO that would obviously help displace it.
  17. clskinsfan
    Yes sir. That map is gorgeous. And if we can get to that -AO we are golden. And it would stick around for a while as well. I cant believe the change in the models over the past 3 days. Crazy.
  18. clskinsfan
    Fringed. But in perfect position for right now
  19. clskinsfan
    There are some long range MJO forecasts that have it going neutral than heading right back toward 7-8. If that happens Feb could be really good. And like you say we could survive a weak phase 5 or 6 during our prime climo.
  20. clskinsfan
    Finally some real potential at the end of this mornings 6Z GFS. The pattern is light years better than anything we have seen since December. Bring on the PSU mega pattern change!
  21. clskinsfan
    This right here. All we hear about is strat this and strat that. If the pattern doesnt flip many are going to go down hard with their calls. I dont know anything about SSW's. Nothing at all. But I know a horrid winter pattern when I see one. And I also know that the majority of the time that horrid pattern is hard to get rid of.
  22. clskinsfan
    If we can get that strong west based -NAO to develop we will get some cold air into the area. But that appears to be a big if. We have basically had a neutral NAO for a month. And when it has dipped negative it has been east based and worthless for us. With a crappy PAC it might be one of the only things that can save us.
  23. clskinsfan
    If nothing else the models are hinting at some blocking in the medium range. I will worry about the long range in a couple of weeks. Give me a -NAO and I will take my chances from there.
  24. clskinsfan
    In fairness. 2016 was one storm. The rest of the winter was abysmal. I really dont get the negativity in here though. We havent even hit our prime climo yet. The upcoming pattern looks serviceable at least. It is almost impossible for us not to luck into at least a couple of snows between mid Jan and mid Feb. with a decent pattern. Last winter the writing was on the wall early and I bailed early as a result. This winter still has a ton of promise.
  25. clskinsfan
    7-8-1 MJO during our peak climo is so rare around here. IF that happens you can just about guarantee the cold will be there. The only other question is will the storms be there as well?
×
×
  • Create New...