clskinsfan
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December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion
clskinsfan replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Great 18Z runs this evening. I am just happy to see storms heading into our peak climo period starting to show up. Merry Christmas everyone! -
Lets be honest the PAC means just about everything for us in the winter. Yes a -NAO can help save us occasionally. But a transient block last week screwed us badly. If the PAC sets up and stays bad we are done. But that would be the same conclusion in an enso setup. Personally I dont think we see a +AO in Jan/Feb. Not based on science but because we have seen a predominately +AO for a while now. And the law of averages would say we are due to see it flip.
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The 12Z FV3 had that little follow up wave on Christmas day as well. Something to keep an eye on at least. I really love the look of that map Bob posted above. Would like to see the block set up a little bit further north. But that is a nice look way out there in lala land.
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That is incredible for Dec. Congrats.
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It is almost comical watching the snow just stop at I66. I made that call a few days ago as a joke. And this is what I get for saying it. The snow line is literally shaped EXACTLY like I66.
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NVM. having to pound beers to tolerate the Redskins game caused my vision to go to trash.
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Ha. My Route 66 cutoff call is going to work out well. What an unbelievable screw job.
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Pretty amazing how well the models did with this event at LONG lead times. They basically locked in on Southern Virginia a week ago and with the exception of a few off runs never changed.
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I have just been looking at VA traffic cams with envy. 81 is a disaster from the TN border to Staunton basically. Oh what could have been. Definitely the worst December screw job I can remember for my area.
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Now THAT is a snowstorm! Congrats. Reminds me of Jan 2016 here.
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Biggest December screw job in history for my area about to happen. Whatever. Macallan 12 cures all ills. One positive to the cold air is that Snowshoe looks great already. They are making snow like a champ there. https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam
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You guys are right of course. But I am 50 miles west of there
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Nope. 50 is about 10 miles north of 66 west of the city.
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Hmmm. I said a couple of days ago that I thought 66 would end up the cutoff. I think i am going to bust. Maybe route 50 instead? Either way that puts me out of the game. Congrats to ya'll down south. Enjoy.
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Yeah. I dont know what happened to to the RGEM. It used to be a really good model. Last winter it was absolutely pathetic though.
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Hmmm. 12Z RGEM even gets an inch into my area. Must hug.
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The 3K doesnt even get precip into Richmond I dont think.
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Beautiful out this evening. Just took the dog for a walk. There is something really special about crisp 30 degree air. It just makes you feel rejuvenated. Partly cloudy 34 degrees.
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The ignore feature is incredible on this site. Works like a charm.
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I like DT's map. Like I said earlier I think 66 will end up the cutoff. he has some high totals in RIC area that could bust. But overall a good map IMO.
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Not really fair to ask them to be quiet when we are always celebrating our snow here. Just saying.
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JMA for the win!! I am interested to see how much larger the precip shield gets as we get closer to the event. Yes we have a brick wall over us and the cutoff is going to be brutal. But i still think precip makes up further than modeled. Maybe only to 66 which puts me out of the game.
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I dont even think it would get snow into Richmond with that look. Crazy that the models seem to have had the confluence weaker at longer lead times with this event. Often the opposite is true.
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The NAM is closed at 500 over TX at hour 57. But there is a brick wall just waiting for it over central PA.
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The only good thing I see about these model runs so far is that there is no chance for NE without a phase as well. For once they are sitting in just about the same place as us. On the outside living on a prayer.
