clskinsfan

Euro was lining up for another hit at the end of the run as well. Like I said yesterday we are gonna get hit twice before February.

My daughter down in the Staunton area says literal blizzard going on down there.

Or thump to dryslot. Which can work for us.

Some of those long range upper air maps remind me a lot of 2010. I know weenie talk. But they do.

No one is taking the surface maps as gospel. It is about the NH setup. And it is ripe for us to get hit.

We are gonna end up getting hit twice before February. The setup is just so good. And there appear to be plenty of vorts through the rest of the month. Just hang on another week everyone. It is going to happen. Now give me some weenies.

Took the week off from looking at models because it was clear we had no chance for at least that long. The threat next weekend looks pretty realistic to me. Not a complicated setup at all. All we need is the boundary to make it through before the precip arrives.

GFS is a whiff this run. I think I am going to take a break for a week or so. Pretty clear nothing is happening at all in the next 7 days.

That cold push in the ICON is nice to see. Subfreezing temps down close to Tampa the morning of the 17th.

At this point a snow shower is a significant snow event.

I dont live in the city.

I am just going by upper air maps. It looks like it would be a perfect 500 pass to me. But what do I know?

FWIW the 12Z RGEM would be a hit. And looks a lot like the NAM.

Its not that we are below average. The issue is the pattern has been good for snow. And on top of that we have had storms. Just not snowstorms. We got unlucky on the timing of the block setting up. All of the cold air got trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. And the rest is history. I still think we get hit in late January/early Feb. though.

Yep. Much weaker vort this run.

It's actually decent agreement from a week out with the op for a west of the fall line storm.

NAM gets some snow into the OC area on Saturday. Might have to head to the beach this weekend.

I dont think anyone mentioned it in the other thread. But the UKIE looks good at 144. Already starting to phase. Would have been a nice storm IMO.

Work forced me to miss the Euro run. But oh man. Thing is the GFS was actually pretty close to the same deal. Just missed by a little bit. Gonna be a fun week of tracking.

GFS is so close to a bomb for the 12th. Will be a fish storm as depicted. But I am loving the chances from the USAF storm.

Nope. Charlottesville gets nothing.

If you watch the animation of that 500 panel above you can see the block relaxing and surging. We are gonna get hit during at least one of those relaxations. And I dont care what the weeklies say. A block like that is most likely going to be persistent throughout the entire winter. Could it relax and be less extreme towards mid February. Yep. And that might actually be a great thing for us. Just look at how the models have been handling this so far. Cutters into a strong -NAO? I have been more worried about suppression than anything else ever since the models starting advertising the extreme blocking. We are going to get ours this winter.

Haha. Not only the wrong thread but the wrong board. The post was meant for the Washington Football Team forum

wrong thread