Yeah. I have a hard time believing we are going to hit negative teens out here. But does it really matter when your temps are near zero anyways? Brutal cold regardless.
Was looking at the Kuchera ratio map on the gfs run. It had DC at around 14-1 and the ratios progressed up to 20-1 well west of town. Not sure how accurate that is but pretty phenomenal fluff if true.
The confluence is worse as well. Look at the position of the 50/50 in that animation above. I mean its the NAM. But I think you are right and it ends up north.