clskinsfan

Well yeah. And they almost all sucked ass.

I think the southern hits over the past decade are Nina based Chuck. We have been stuck in a never ending cycle of watching the south get hit and then getting skipped while the Eastern Shore and occasionally NE gets hit as well. I know everyone is worried about a Nino. I am not. It is time to break the cycle of suck. Yes I am in a better spot to succeed in a Nino than the cities. But the cities have failed as well for almost a decade at this point. We need precip to target our area again. And I will take my chances with a wound up southern stream that is actually capable of cooling the column. There is nothing normal about the past 7 years of weather. Nothing at all.

NAM is a decent rainer for all of us. Which we need badly. Is what it is.

0Z HRRR is going to be north and wetter. At least we will get some rain out of this I think.

Not really. Elevation only helps so much. You have to go 100 miles south of us to even feel it.

Brother. We wont see snow out here either.

Oh Boy.....

This isnt a horrific look on the long range GFS. But of course it is the GFS.

Flurries 30 degrees

I just hope we get precip at this point. It will almost definitely be a warmer winter than this year. But I dont care. Just give me moisture and I will take my chances. And hopefully an active southern stream from a Nino will provide that.

Good thing we dont really need true Arctic air in February to get snow.

Would you actually bet against another miss south though with what has happened the past 7 years? I would not.

It's pretty different. the position of the west coast trough and Aleutian ridge is much worse. More Pac puke. Although I am about to puke myself watching this game. So yeah.

Those maps say average to slightly above. I will take my chances with that and plenty of precip. Everyone freaks when a plot says 2 degrees above normal. In February that doesnt matter. The problem has been the lack of precip. Give me moist. I will take my chances then.

Yeah. That is an ass look. The MJO and most other guidance says we are going to fail. And I think we are as well. Is what it is. Most guidance is going for a consolidated PV up north. That is pretty much a death nail for us. It allows the pacific to completely degrade to a point where we cant win. Dont say it often. But if long range guidance IS CORRECT. Winter is over.