Weather Will

WB 6Z GFS and NBM

I think we go from torch to icy/ cold rain this storm with a more positive long range and call it a win...

WB 18Z GFS

WB 6Z GEFS. No support for operational run in the 5 day storm,

I think it is going to be a wild ride this winter....it may not work out but it will be fun to find out!

Where is the torchmas? WB 6Z GFS...

WB extended EPS 30 day anomalies for Jan.

EPS daily extended ticked colder this run with normal temps into second week of January and with below normal end of January into early February. Control is much colder. Definitely not a "winter is over" run.

WB 12Z GFS for Christmas....rain and 40s....our specialty. Also perfect example on taking models with a BIG grain of salt outside a few days. No torchmas, just rawmas...

WB 18Z EURO stays below 50 on Christmas...

Latest Euro weeklies really cut back on the below normal cold air for January. Hopefully just a blip...

Anyone know anything about the AI GFS....trying to form a coastal after the NY....(WB 18Z). Too many models...it would be nice if one of them would start to stand out like the EURO used to....

WB latest EURO weeklies bring normal temps by week ending Jan. 10. Rest of month is below normal.

I only post those in the digital thread now, I try not to piss off Cape.....

Why do you care what a global model is showing at hour 360?!!!! They are rarely right even at 120 hours out.

WB 12Z GEFS is not a complete shut the blinds for NY week.

Wind front going through with some showers.....

We do wind well in Brunswind..... URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 859 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025 MDZ003-004-VAZ028-WVZ050>053-055-192200- /O.UPG.KLWX.WI.Y.0024.251219T1700Z-251220T0300Z/ /O.EXA.KLWX.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-251220T0300Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Frederick VA-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Hardy- 859 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2025 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. * WHERE...In Maryland, Frederick MD and Washington Counties. In Virginia, Frederick VA County. In West Virginia, Hampshire, Hardy, Berkeley, Jefferson, and Morgan Counties. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest winds are expected from about 11 AM to 1 PM, and again 3 PM to 9 PM. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Watch for falling debris and tree limbs. Use caution if you must drive.

WB latest EPS on PNA. Anecdotally, when I see the PNA at -3 or lower, it just can't get cold enough at our latitude for snow....but notice it bumps up to near -1 around NY week and the control actually goes positive. At that point, a negative NAO could work some magic and pull some cold air down with the AO neutral and the WPO negative. EPO is not favorable NY week.

Bipolar crowd today....we had a decent December with sustained cold and some snow, even if nothing else happens before NY. Models are struggling with the pattern and we will have to wait to see what happens in January....BUT unlike a lot of years there is a lot of cold air lurking not too far to the North. Patience....

WB 12Z 3K NAM....rain and wind incoming...

WB 6Z AI for NY week

Torch my #%#!!!

Latest WB EURO weeklies do show the later half of month to be colder. Below anomalies for entire month. Pretty good...

Brief dip in EPO next week and AO trending down too on WB 0Z EPS...