Weather Will

WB 18Z GFS 11pm Monday 5am Tuesday 11 am Tuesday 5pm Tuesday Rain totals 2pm Wed.

NHC at 2pm: Disturbance 1: 90% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 7 Days As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025... Central Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Atlantic (AL94): Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in association with a a tropical wave located near Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave tonight or early Friday when it moves near the southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas late Friday or over the weekend and then track northwestward or northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are likely across that region during the next couple of days. While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast are increasing. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

WB 12Z ensembles for Tuesday at 12Z. GEFS ,CMC, Euro, and AI.

At 12Z EURO has Imelda to be hitting SC coast and then stalling out keeping heaviest rain south of DC. (48 hour precip totals for midweek.

At 12Z AI has Imelda to be approaching SC coast and then swirls around and heads north brushing the coastal areas from Hatteras northward.

ICON and Canadian at 12Z do the Fujiwhara and twirl the system(Imelda to be) around Humberto and out to sea.

WB 6Z tracks.

WB 18Z AI and EPS ensemble at Day 6

Nice steady rain...

WB 6Z ATCF tracks for 94L.

WB 18Z EURO and AI Day 6 ensembles.

MJO on EURO made a shift toward favorable phase 2 next week, just in time for tropical development....

To my nonexpert eye, two things: one is that the path of the low is tracking further NW; secondly, its trailing front looks like it will be more progressive so that any lingering moisture or waves will stay well east/south of DMV late week/weekend. Edit: 18Z EURO and Euro AI ensembles are bringing moisture up the coast Sunday/Monday with possible tropical system.

Over the last two days total model precipitation forecasts have decreased for the work week. Looks like Th. May be the wettest day. I will still be happy if I get what the WB 18Z NBM is putting out through Friday (which includes what we are getting this afternoon),

Getting another heavy shower now.... Sun back out. We were on the southern edge. .23.

Heavy shower for 5 minutes....

WB 13Z HRRR has thunderstorms moving across northern tier this afternoon.

Sun making a late afternoon appearance!

Yup, still cloudy here....12Z WB NBM thru Wed. Bring in rains tomorrow afternoon.

WB 6Z AI in fantasy range....

WB 12Z ensembles thru Day 8. Welcome rain still on the map!

WB 12Z ensemble rain totals through Day 9. More welcome rain still looking like a good bet.

MJO forecasted to stay in the null phase...if that verifies a strong finish to the hurricane season may not materialize.

WB 12Z ensembles: 5 day period ending next Sunday is looking promising for more rain.

End of next week looks wet on WB AI ensemble.