GFS 18z too far North. There are still a few 12z EPS members to give the NW suburbs a little hope, about 10 percent. But better than 0 so I will keep a quarter of an eye on it.
WB EURO at 12z looks like an improvement over 0z but still rain. 100-150 miles is doable over 5 days. At least it is something to track other than a torch.
About 20 percent of 0z WBEPS members show snow for the far Northwest suburbs... let’s see if this is the start of a trend or a blip.
Looks like we got some tracking. The chill storm looks promising. The weekend storm is a matter of a super lucky placement of that 500mb
I like the probability maps because they are useful in seeing trends when viewed over several runs. I use the 3 inch or more to get rid of the noise of the members showing a dusting. The reality is that there is 0 percent chance of snow before next weekend. No map of any kind will change that reality.
I have been thinking about this....The first big storm I remember is 1978, when I was 10. Going years without a big snowstorm is nothing new around here. 09-10 was a miracle.
Seems that way. I like the probability maps because it helps me to see if there are any trends developing Or not as the case this winter for DMV snow threat.
GEFS WB Probabilities of 3 inches or more through the following weekend. Most of this potential in the DMV is the result of the potential for a storm as depicted for NEXT weekend.