Oh and the cold the last month or so is paying dividends with ocean water temperatures. OC MD sea temp is 47, which is below the mean of 50 for this time of year.
We are going to get warm weeks every winter. Let’s keep avoiding warm months and we will get some snow. Most long range forecasts that i have read were calling for a colder second half. Keep the stormy pattern and snow will come.
Completely different from last year when we went weeks without tracking anything. Not a torchy December yet at Day 10. And we are tracking another storm in week 3 (GEFS still has hopes of frozen next week).
I am analyzing the appetizer/teaser storm a little differently. First and foremost, the cold air is returning to the lower Ohio valley/ Western West Virginia. Let’s see how long it actually takes for our temperatures to fall toward freezing and then look at the radar and see where the narrow band if moisture is/or isn’t. This is not a big low. It is really like a line if showers going through with cold temps. If you view it this way you won’t be disappointed when you wake up tomorrow am.
Conservative usually wins. We shall see. RGEM and GFS, EURO in the middle, then the NAM. December snow is bonus snow or the appetizer. Main course still to come... just don’t know yet whether it is prime rib or a peanut butter jelly sandwich.
What about surface temps for today and tomorrow? Seem to be lower today than expected and forecasted a notch below for tomorrow as well? Can!t hurt if that is the case.