Weather Will

Latest GFS WB 6Z...looks good!

Still not amounting to much, but it shifted North. WB NAM 0Z at 21Z Tues.

NAM WB 21Z

NAM looks better...

NAM 18Z WB: the new DR. NO except for our SW VA and Eastern Shore friends.

When I watched this WB EPS 500 mb anomalies in motion, looks like by the 20th the SE ridge is finally getting beaten down, and the western trough with an Arctic connection shifting east as a ridge builds in Alaska.

Two snow flurries and 36.

I just saw 2 snow flurries in Brunswick. See you in February.

Latest EUROWB 6z...2 inch line shifted a little eastward.

NWS not impressed two days out with the potential

WB NAM 0Z

GFS says will be lucky to see anything. Hug the EURO, CMC, and the NAM. I am just enjoying having something to track in January. I really have no expectations. I am amused at how personal people are taking this crappy pattern... DON’T!!!! It is just the weather. i just saw my Uncle dying from cancer. That is something to get upset about.

Agreed. The weather gods have the final say...throw out the negativity. Actually in fairness to the doom and gloom facts there Has been a ray of hope for something this week on the models for a couple of weeks.

WB Snow totals.....I know. Ground too warm to stick, blah, blah, blah....But it is better than trying to figure out when the PNA is going to flip in our favor.

Latest EURO WB

Since there is nothing else to track.... latest ICON WB 0z Sat. for Tuesday

NWS Afternoon Discussion on Tuesday: Moving into Tuesday, the trough initially located over the center of the country is expected to amplify and consolidate as a shortwave disturbance descends down the backside of the trough. Exactly how this shortwave interacts with the parent trough will have a large impact on our forecast locally. Given the potential for a complex interaction between these two features, there is a fair amount of uncertainty surrounding the forecast later Tuesday into Tuesday Night. Model consensus currently is that a weak area of low pressure will form over the Tennessee Valley, then track northeast into the Ohio Valley before ultimately transferring energy off the coast Tuesday Night. Some showers will be possible in the zone of low- level warm advection Tuesday into Tuesday Night. However, the mid- upper level trough looks as though it will be quite progressive, so any coastal storm that forms should be well off to our northeast by the time it matures. As a result, precipitation totals aren`t expected to be that impressive, with nearly all ensemble members in both the EPS and GEFS showing under a half inch through the duration of the event. Some cooler air may try to work in on the backside of the system, so can`t rule out the system ending as a little snow north and west of the I-95 corridor. However, that appears to be an unlikely scenario at the moment. Conditions will dry out by Tuesday Night, but upslope snow showers may persist along the Allegheny Front in strong WNW flow.

Looking at the individual EPS members about 6 percent chance if you count the individual members with more than a dusting for Tues.

Comparing the 18Z to 12z GEFS clown snow map mean at 6 days it was a marginal improvement.

In a quick look, EPS still has weak support for a snow storm around next Thursday. I know, grasping at straws.

WB 18Z GEFS snow....couple of big hits in the individual members...i am not punting the second and third week of January yet...

WB 12z EPS see Member 27 for a glimmer of clown map hope.

Everyone is entitled to a forecast if it is based on facts. It is discouraging when the facts point toward a Warmer pattern, but personal attacks on the messengers are not warranted. The reality is that we will never again see 2009- 2010 in our lifetimes based on our climatology. But that does not mean we can’t get a snow storm in the oasis of a crappy pattern sometime before mid-March. That is why I stay in the game every year until the bitter or perhaps still glorious end.

WB 0z EPS Jan 7 upper air: appears there continues to be opportunity during the 7-10 period as previously discussed. I am wondering if the trough east of Hawaii (Assuming that is correct) should translate into more ridging in Alaska than shown...at least there is now something to watch!