Weather Will

I notice the RGEM is not enthusiastic either so seems like a red flag.

So do the mesoscale models have a track record of forecasting lift better than the globals?

You may be right. But I got up at 345 to catch a train that is now an hour late because of a tree blown down on the track so I decided to look at the maps.

So my question to the experts is whether the NAM is a red flag that the dry cold air will make this a nonevent?

NWS Official Maps

6z WB GFS precip maps. Still shows icy mess for North and West suburbs of DC. Still NE MD bullseye of light snow accumulation before changeover to ice there.

3k WB 6z NAM says enjoy a couple showers, sleet pellets and flurries. Moisture starved.

WB EPS Probability of 3 inches or more. For DMV, EPS says we wait until the end of the month for our next bout of winter precip after this weekend.

WB EURO 0Z Winter Precip. Icing event in NW DC suburbs looking likely after about an inch of snow. Increased on EURO this run.

I have been thinking about this....The first big storm I remember is 1978, when I was 10. Going years without a big snowstorm is nothing new around here. 09-10 was a miracle.

WB 18z GFS Winter Precip

12Z EURO WB Winter Precip. Maps.

WB 12Z GFS Winter Precip. Maps. Much better than the NAM. Congrats to my friends in NE MD.

I am not posting the 12K NAM or 3K NAM. Not worth it....as indicated above it's a bummer all around. Although I really don't want ice and power outages.

Seems that way. I like the probability maps because it helps me to see if there are any trends developing Or not as the case this winter for DMV snow threat.

True, but I live in west...Sw of Frederick. WB EURO 0z. Note also there is nothing of consequence on the EURO snow or sleet maps.

Latest NAM WB 12k winter precip maps.

It will be interesting to see what happens. Latest sleet and snow forecast WB GFS 6z.

0z EPS probability of 3 inches or more. Most of the probability in DMV is associated with days 10-15.

WB winter precip maps NAM 12k at 0z.

Seems prudent to monitor the latest forecasts for icy conditions Saturday/Saturday night. No one is getting snowed in around the DMV this weekend. But what do I know, I’m just a lawyer with a weather hobby. i would also add as a fellow federal employee that while the NWS is conservative, they usually get it right within 48 hours or so of an event. They know the analogs and have in-house methodology to hone in on a forecast. Plus they have the added pressure to get it right with headquarters in their region. Believe me they want to get it correct so they don’t have to hear about it.

18Z GFS sleet map accumulation WB. The snow map is an inch or less. There are also pockets of light freezing rain accumulation.

EPS WB 12Z Probability of 3 inches or More Through the 30th.....not very impressive yet.

Latest WB 12Z EURO Freezing Rain Map

GEFS WB Probabilities of 3 inches or more through the following weekend. Most of this potential in the DMV is the result of the potential for a storm as depicted for NEXT weekend.