Weather Will

WB 18Z GFS

WB 3K NAM DC Bullseye!

WB 12Z EPS today v. yesterday. This is not the first time it has done this….

Look at the Atlantic between EPS and GEFS. The track of the lies us very similar….sorry this is beyond me, models are all over the place.

WB 12Z EURO 1am Friday, compared to 12Z yesterday.

WB 12Z EURO has it figured out all right….what is bad about the EURO is its complete lack of cold air/confluence. If that is correct, the track does not matter.

I fall for this too, but as we keep saying OPS outside 5 days may give hints of macro weather: stormy, mild, cold etc. but not specifics. If the EURO showed a blizzard this run it would be fools gold for 6 hours…

WB 12Z EURO v GFS….over. Wait for EPS.

Now who is bargaining…. interesting that P30 has the best handle on the early week storm. Not sure that means anything.

WB 12Z GEFS keeps us in the game. But it looks like with a marginal air mass we either get a HECS or BUST.

WB 12Z GFS

WB 6Z EPS at Day 6 compared to 0z

The latest EURO weeklies also like the early to mid February period. Meaning colder air forecasted to be in place and above normal precipitation.

It’s too soon to give up. 6Z GEFS is an improvement over 0Z.

I may have no idea what I am talking about, but looking at the WB 6Z GFS pressure maps you can see that the model is trying to consolidate the low to the coast but it takes too long for our latitude. Still need to see how this plays out. With marginal cold air we need an earlier consolidated transfer to the coast.

WB 6Z GEFS is colder. But there are more lows to the west this run that look like they transfer to the coast,

Comparing WB OZ v 12Z through Th. I don’t think this will be a good run. Much warmer. Hopefully EPS will still be positive. Good night.

WB 0Z EURO late weekend disturbance.

Well at least we go below freezing area wide Sunday am to remind us it is winter on the EURO. WB 0Z.

Was comparing to 4 runs ago….I am fringed in western suburbs. i jinked this getting up. Will wait for EURO to put me back to sleep…

Water table….:)

Yup, not much snow….

WB 0Z GEFS 24 hour period. Weak sauce…

I’m amused that we are discussing the snow maps. My point is that the 12Z EURO suite is much more robust for a bigger storm than any other models….hopefully it is correct. and I am subdued because we have seen the EPS and EURO flip so I am trying to keep myself from getting disappointed. Believe me if we start seeing a significant increase in GEFS, I will be happy!!! The 12Z EPS members have several hits that would make people smile… But I would caution last night’s 0Z EPS run (last picture) was not as robust so we really don’t have a trend yet even on the EPS. Bottom line is that I will keep my expectations in check until we see more consistency within models and a greater consensus among models.

No reason to post the GEFS snow maps….