Weather Will
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Everything posted by Weather Will
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12Z GEFS: 3, 6, and 12…
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WB 12Z EURO….perhaps it will be correct but seems the model can’t decide between the Ohio valley low and a coastal transfer. By the time it consolidates, it is too far north and off the coast for our latitude. Transfer sooner, closer to the coast then you can worry about temps…
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WB 12Z GEFS…..don’t give up yet…
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I don’t know, still think track is key. We don’t get snows with primary dying in Northern Ohio and secondary forming over DC…
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WB 6Z CFS likes the late January/early February period.
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Back to looking for cold air. WB 0Z CFS gives sustained cold starting the period after January 20 through February 20 (with the peak of the cold in the first part of February). EPS also has the EPO going negative at the end of its run around the 20th, We will see but our winter chances are not over yet….
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I know there is a different thread, but it is going to be a long week, GFS and EURO can’t even agree inside 2 days…
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WB 18Z GEFS held its own…
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10 am Sat mean. We are in the game for another 6 hours,
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4 am Sat
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1 am Sat.
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4pm
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1pm
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WB 18Z GEFS 10am Fri.
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WB 18Z GFS…. Very unusual evolution. Will be interesting to see how this plays out…
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WB 18Z GFS
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WB 3K NAM DC Bullseye!
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WB 12Z EPS today v. yesterday. This is not the first time it has done this….
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Look at the Atlantic between EPS and GEFS. The track of the lies us very similar….sorry this is beyond me, models are all over the place.
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WB 12Z EURO 1am Friday, compared to 12Z yesterday.
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WB 12Z EURO has it figured out all right….what is bad about the EURO is its complete lack of cold air/confluence. If that is correct, the track does not matter.
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I fall for this too, but as we keep saying OPS outside 5 days may give hints of macro weather: stormy, mild, cold etc. but not specifics. If the EURO showed a blizzard this run it would be fools gold for 6 hours…
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WB 12Z EURO v GFS….over. Wait for EPS.
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Now who is bargaining…. interesting that P30 has the best handle on the early week storm. Not sure that means anything.
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WB 12Z GEFS keeps us in the game. But it looks like with a marginal air mass we either get a HECS or BUST.
