Weather Will

WB 6Z GFS and GEFS for midweek.

It does not take a met to know what is getting ready to happen the next 2 weeks as we strain to squeeze out an inch before we change to rain with every storm. Head to interior New England. WB 12Z EPS.

WB 12Z Can ensembles look pretty good to me for midweek.

All good! Long work week….I hope 12Z brings us some good news for the middle of next week and/or late January period. Punting until the last week of February is depressing.

Your welcome! At least it’s Friday…

WB 6Z EURO. Congrats far western MD and the mountain ranges of WV for storm 1. NEXT for the rest of us.

WB 18Z EURO

WB 18Z 2 weeks and 56 runs to go!!!!

WB OZ EPS Wave 3 potential which would come in Day 11 (30th to early Feb.) perhaps is the one to watch with cold enough air finally established aloft and at the surface. Details to be determined.. But expectations should be kept in check for DC proper and East because most of the guidance does CURRENTLY keep the heaviest probability for significant accumulations N and W. The probabilities have remained steady compared to 12Z yesterday, Have a good day everyone. Hope for shifts SE over the next few days…

WB 0Z EPS Storm 2 for middle of next week is cooler for NW burbs Wed evening then storm one but by the time surface temps go below freezing overnight Wed. most of the precipitation is gone. The members that consolidate and strengthen the coastal low further south give us more snow, so this needs to bs monitored the next few days for trends.

WB 0Z EPS, late weekend storm (Storm 1) too warm at surface and aloft for areas east of mountains, despite nice track.

Storm 1 for late Sunday period is on life support on WB 6Z GEFS. Weak and too warm.

We're likely to get zero snow from Jan 22 to when it warms up again Can’t say that yet, but the GEFS extended is not looking good after early February. Hopefully a storm will appear between 25th-2nd.

Seemed like the 0Z GEFS took a step back and really shortened the window of opportunity, but maybe I over reacted.

Yup, after a horrible WB 0Z GFS from start to finish , 6Z tries to reel us back in for next week. Such a volatile pattern, with no clear trends yet.

It does not look like we will pull a rabbit out of hat in the next week or so if the deterministic models are correct. Boundary remains to our NW. EPS is not updating on WB but maybe that is for the best.. I have not given up but my expectations are low. Congratulations to interior New England….WB 0Z. It looks to me that we will have to see where we are later next week/ next weekend for a discreet threat. At some point you have to stop staring at 500MB potential and say WHERE IS THE BEEF!!!!

Summary of the 0Z….

Being slightly more serious, WB 18Z EPS says an inch is possible, GEFS says next.

WB 18Z ensembles, toss the GEFS, the EPS mean is meh, I will take the Control.

WB 18Z GEFS…. Can’t make this stuff up….

This year in particular, beyond a few days the models have been horrible. GFS is a waste of time outside 48 hours. Hopefully the GEFS will hold or be an improvement.

WB 6Z GFS will be the first time the GFS verifies at Day 9 this winter…

WB EURO weeklies also like the later part of February and early March.

Waiting for train to DC, few sleet pellets and light flurries on onset of precip at 440 am in SW Frederick.

WB 18z GEFS. Interesting to see about half the members keep it cold beyond February 1.