NYCweatherNOW

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

By this time though the models are fairly locked in and I wouldn't expected significant changes and unfortunately usally if there are major changes this close to a storm it's a NW trend rather than SE, thats why we do so well with coastals. I do agree in terms of the specifics of each model run we need to stop living and dying which each run and realize the overall picture which is a snow to wintry mix to rain event but the specifics are still not decided.

What’s your scientific reason for the models to trend northwest now

Just now, pstar3182 said:

Lot of members trying to will frozen precip, ignoring guidance. 

Guidance is just that. It’s not a forecast you have to always make your forecast based on experience. I think this is 3-6 inch thump followed by sleet and heavy rain maybe ending as some snow flakes

Just now, Snow88 said:

It's fine. Well east of the gfs and cmc.

It looks kinda like the euro. I’m sure it’ll be snow to freezing rain to rain maybe ending as some flurries.

Ukmet is definitely West. Bad news if you want a colder solution. Don’t tell me GfS wins again

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

If the CMC/GFS are right the icing threat is mostly non existent, it's basically snow to rain from SE to NW for everyone.  It is quite the model battle now between CMC/GFS vs Euro/Ukmet/NAM

Clearly I would pick the better models. euro and ukmet are just better models and nam could be erratic and but it has improved somewhat and it doesn’t show those crazy qpf depiction like it used to.

Cmc is very warm and it’s an erratic model but maybe onto something. I would go with ukmet and euro blend at this stage

Gfs is just not a good model. I think icon may be a better model than GFS. It seems like the GfS is good with the strength of the storm but that’s about

14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I disagree about the only light showers part, this storm is intense and has a lot of warm moisture with it, it will pour and pour a lot the question is will the pouring freeze on the surface or not

It’s sleet. And freezing rain no rain like icon just depicted.

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Verbatim it's more like less than an inch for most of the city, the 2 inch line is at the Bronx/Westchester border. 

This setup reminds of me of a quick thump of snow followed by sleet and than maybe change to some light showers before it ends and turns brutally cold. That thump could come in like a wall and accumulate 3-6 quick inches

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not fun following a rainstorm, hopefully they'll be some wintry precip on the ground, if not what a waste of cold

It’s mostly frozen this isn’t going to be a rainstorm sir

Looks like the albany is the place to be with this storm as far as snow.  Nam looks a bit warmer which is good news nobody wants ice

Looks like 10 inches for the city 

10 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

UK is a little bit SE of where it was for the monster crush job on 1/15 at 0Z...

 

Much stronger though

Check back at 1220 for better graphics than you might as well wait for the euro about 40 minutes after

edit: it’s like ukmet is the new euro. Maybe that’s about the only thing they got from brexit-European union deal

3 minutes ago, Greg said:

I think you would be ok but based on climo the extreme outer Cape would get tinged only for a very breef time then all snow. 

It’s practically the same because the high would be moving east and ukmet is taking that low practically due east. Ok maybe a ping or two but it’s interesting right now for sure

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Not necessarily. Mid levels presumably warm but would crash with that depiction. 

No way

2 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

Who cares whether it snows 2 or 4 inches before it pours?  

According to ukmet this would be an all snow event for the cape and nyc

5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Grabbed from NE, if that's 0z UK as advertised the panels might be an interesting view.

Crush job look. It kinda looks like ukmet yesterday 12z that was all snow for the city. Still trending southeast 

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Drunk? I don't make snow maps 

Did canadian show an all snow event for Boston. And do you and everyone else want to see my snow map

6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Have to lol at the irony of the CMC going from most amped/NW model for quite some time, to now being of the further SE albeit still quite a ways off for us.

Looks like billy is all snow according to Canadian. 

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

If theres a lot of snow and/or sleet on the ground it would probably lead to possible more icing but I still don't see it being a huge deal at 32 

I’ve seen numerous times where it got stuck at 32 with a lot of Ivey roads and branches. You’re going to have a flash freeze

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Well I personally think a lot of people will be disappointed including those in SNE. 

It'll probably just be another heavy rainstorm for us. The one after will def be all rain too and then maybe the pattern will get better. 

What are you talking about? There’s plenty of potential in the long range

11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

All of NYC absolutely could have major icing. But it has to be colder than 31°

No 32 will do...cold surface already. It’s freezing duh that rain will take to a bit of time to freeze but it will 

Just now, Animal said:

Worst case scenario? Come on with this talk. Just be careful etc. find a safe spot.

Just now, jfklganyc said:

Wonder if this pans out. significant icing situation for a huge chunk of the area

Ground is for sure cold!