NYCweatherNOW

1 hour ago, Gravity Wave said:

18z Euro showed a lot less interaction with the PV and seemed destined for a colder/further south outcome.

How about 18z eps

15 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

would love to be in the Sierras.. 5-7 feet of snow..

 

That’s too much snow bro! I don’t mind 2 feet but anything above that is dangerous

eidt: can’t believe I said that

Yeah GFS is the most likely solution. It’s been so persistent with this solution. Maybe we get an inch but I think this is mostly a rain storm for us. It just doesn’t want to snow here. I think ukmet corrects itself as a cutter tonight. I give up!

According to icon 18z we’d get some extremely heavy snow turn to ice. That’s worse than just a snow event like ukmet shows. By the way icon only goes out to 120hrs and the storm is halfway done. This would be a disaster!

Icon is just a bit better which was already good. Snow to ice 

Does anyone have the ibm model run?

I’m going to ride out the best model and say ukmet is wrong. Let’s see what the best model shows in half hr (eps) 

fwiw ukmet did excellent with Sunday’s event in he middle Atlantic while gfs and it’s nemesis para and Canadian were very volatile.

Just now, White Gorilla said:

Is Ukie number 2 in verification scores? 

3rd actually

eps

euro

ukmet

Imo it is a better run. It has the high by North Dakota weaker and the confluence to our north is stronger. Move that low 100 miles SE and you’ll get buried with a foot of snow like the ukmet shows. It is concerning obviously the best model shows a messy storm (mostly rain for us) but this could change it is still 4 days away. We have thunder and ukmet on our side 2nd best and I don’t know which rating does the thunder have but still a long ways out!

Anyone have the soundings for ukmet

looks to be a cold snowstorm for us in the coastal plain with that track?

Ukmet would be all snow in my opinion

Ukmet would be all snow wouldn’t it?

This weather thing got me upset. I need a break from these models. Everything is warm now!

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

that 1 or 2 inches will probably cause more problems on a Friday morning then what ever falls over the weekend unless the flash freeze happens Sunday night and causes problems for Monday mornings rush hour although the schools will be closed Monday for the holiday...…..

I can’t wait I’m hoping for a big coastal and all snow could happen! Ukmet and thunder are on board!

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

how come no storm thread for the 17th - 18th event ? There is a chance some areas see more accumulation from this event then the weekends which IMO that thread was started too early ….

Go big or go home lol. I still think we should open a thread for a 1-2 inches why not this way we separate the discussions.

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah a few good ones. Amazing when its 5 days out....lol.

Any word on the 06z eps run?

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Just amazing, it's been two months since I've had a measurable snowfall and there's nothing on the horizon. 

Yet living in NJ that's not unheard of versus good ole Boston. As of Jan 15 this is easily in my top 5 most awful winters, it's been like a colder, wetter version of 11/12.

Ummm u have snow coming Thursday night and Sunday night

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like maybe a little snow burst before it changes to rain. 

I don’t believe that. I think the nam solution looks more trustworthy. Thanks though

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rain. Maybe some brief snow to start. This one isn't yours. 

How about New York City 

sorry to bother you

3 minutes ago, David-LI said:

any got maps for surface temp?

FV3 beat the regular GFS November 15th snowstorm but ever since it’s been horrible not saying it’s depiction is wrong.

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs looks great

Low of the coast

With this track, it would be all snow for nyc region

8 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

lol at Jan 26 storm on the GFS

Yeah that high just scoots east 1042 high is hard to move like that but that is one strong system depiction on the gfs

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

The polar vortex is the reason why it got squashed and it's still going to be to our north.

I don't see this storm being a cutter.

 

Ukie just trended way south east and now looks like the gfs.

I just hope this doesn’t become a coastal runner because that high seems way to our northwest. A couple of days ago it showed it over north of Michigan now it’s like north of North Dakota. 

Lock it up. Also I think February and early March is very cold and snowy