NYCweatherNOW

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The GFS looks like it’s going to be an inland runner

Not going to cut with a 1051 high to our north.

2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Verbatim, it would not be rain. Look at surface temps...

2 minutes ago, JMcCaughey42 said:

Isn't that ice?

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

850s are likewise cold

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Yeah my mistake no rain there. temps are in the 20’s so it would be horrendous!

Icon 12z looks good for our area for Friday’s event, but it’s mostly a light event (white rain) still could drop an inch or so for the city more as you go up north 

Icon 12z shows a good thump for Sunday’s event changing to rain not a bad solution at least we get heavy snow to heavy rain

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I just haven't see that modeled anywhere of yet....we'd need some sort of block to allow the western storm to stop in its tracks-not sure we have that?

Cmc kinda did. Let’s see what icon shows it did decent with November storm and yesterday’s 

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would have to disagree since the 0z EPS took a big step in the wrong direction.

You are just making that up. 

5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

they're being entirely realistic. look at it as a voice of reason in a thread overwhelmed by non-science, weenieism and uninformed optimism.

Okay guys sorry

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Gefs is further southeast

GEFS looks excellent 

6 minutes ago, Hazey said:

It’s a week away.

True. But I’ve heard that the big ones are sniffed out way in advance by the models. Let’s see. Hyped but also cautious!

5 minutes ago, Hazey said:

This run has some pretty appreciable changes starting with that first system. Enjoy the look but doubt it will hold.

What’s your scientific reasoning for not holding?

Wow that is one big storm!

Just now, Snow88 said:

Gfs is way more favorable than 12z for next weekend.

This is going to be the biggest hit this year 

EPS looks amazing

19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

The sref is trash

I think u should open a thread for next weekends monster storm cause we really haven’t had any luck not opening up threads. What u think

How’s this even a thread James ?

Just now, purduewx80 said:

nope. all the ensembles favor a colder storm than the GFS and GEM ops.

That’s true GEFS AND GEPS are colder but it’s still so far away. I’d like the GfS to get on board

Sorry guys I was wrong I looked at the 144hrs off the euro and it looked like it was going to cut and I guessed the next frame which I ended up being wrong. I apologize for rambling. Anyone have a clown map i want to save it on the desktop 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, hopefully the Euro is wrong here. None of the other guidance like GFS, UK, CMC have an ice storm like that. 

I’d take the euro solution. It’s mostly snow just north of Manhattan. 

Euro looks warm. I think this is getting me depressed honestly. I’m going to stop looking at models for 3 days

6 minutes ago, RedSky said:

GFS and GEM both horrid through day 10 make it stop need ensembles and a better euro soon or it's life support time.

 

 

Add GFS para to that list it cuts into Montréal area! Mostly rain just maybe a dusting at the back end and we all know that never really works out.

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS look great. 

GEFS looks a lot better than the OP and south of the OP run

UKMET is slower at 144hrs and about 100 miles south of GFS

thats a beautiful look on the GEFS

I’ve never seen a model output such as this mornings para GFS showing cold temps like this. This would be insane after a devastating ice storm 

SREF’s lol

Hey I just checked out the gfs para and it shows how the next two threats after this particular storm that’s hitting dc great) could both kinda work out for us. It shows snow for the first threat and than snow to ice back to snow and the clown maps are just that but these high pressures are hard to break. Although I do think this storm system happening right now is strong but not as strong as modeled. It’s a bit warmer than what it’s depicting on the models. I’m expecting at least a dusting in New York City tonight into tomorrow.

Nyc is saturated now and those snow showers should reach the ground in like an hr or so west of nyc 

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It's ridiculous.   Until something else suppprts it I would keep my expectations extemely low.  I think it's around 5".

Yeah now I know why they’re useless lol