Snowcrazed71

I for one and fine with not being a big snowstorm for Christmas Eve. A few days before would have been great, but I don't want it to mess up the weather for Christmas Eve. Our family is getting together. Comment will all be together for the first time in years.

The other piece of the puzzle that I'm laughing about is, as I read all these comments on how there are people here writing things off and saying how it's going to be a torch at the new year or it's going to be a rainer for everyone before the new year??  We had no idea what was happening with this storm before we got here, we have no idea what's going to happen the week after. How the hell are you guys making predictions on what's going to happen by the new year? At this point. It's hilarious to watch some of you melting down over what's upcoming. Everyone here knows that there's going to be surprises. Everyone here knows that the models will change back and forth after Christmas. Collect yourself people. It's the weather, it's supposed to be erratic! 

:-)

26 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

When is the pattern change, 10 days away?

Got anything positive or constructive to say? Let us know when you do. 

20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Don’t worry though, if you didn’t get your fill of rain during this holiday season so far, after the Christmas cutter, the gfs has another massive cutter on New Year’s Eve.

We are so thankful to have you as part of this forum. ;-) ha!

5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Still going to cut but that’s a HUGE difference at the surface and aloft vs 12z.  It’s a positive trend for sure.

I got your how many of you feel about Bernie Rayno and how much stock you put into his forecasts, but he did say the models would come east.. But never far enough to be an east coast storm. 

So I watched Bernie reyno on Twitter about 20 minutes ago. Pretty informative. I would say. He does feel that the models will probably swing east again, but nothing off the coast. At least that's what he thinks. As of now. He feels like it'll drive up somewhere between Detroit and maybe Pittsburgh. So I have succumbed to the fact that we will not be getting snowstorm here on the east coast at the end of next week. I did say this before, if it was going to happen on Christmas Eve and I don't want it to happen at all. My folks are here from Florida. Come and my dad's getting older and I rather spend it with my entire family and have it canceled because of a big snowstorm. I can't get these memories back with my parents, but I know I'll get more snow storms. Onward and upward as they say.

39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

18z GEFS improved snowfall for most

You heard these guys, the masters have spoken. This is not going to be a snow event. This is an inland runner and we're all going to get rain. It is set in stone.

Any who think otherwise are idiots or dreamers ( jk ).

Lolol

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

lol not yet

My daughter did get excited when she saw the nor'easter and snow, likely in the forecast for the end of next week. I told her I was excited to, but not to get too excited as it would likely change. Boy I hate being pessimistic... But I need to let her know it May not always go the way we want ( oh wait, I was telling myself that ) lol

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Quebec is nice-presuming you are fluent in French?  Urban amenities with tons of snow!

My other half those french pretty well, me not so much lol. My mom is a Canadian citizen, so I can put in for dual citizenship. It really is a thought, but we're not going anywhere for at least the next 12 years.

Who knows, by that point Quebec City may be more like New York City with the weather haha

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

My wife found a 24 acre place we can buy in northern VT.  Tempting….

 

That's so funny! You should say that. My husband and I originally were thinking that we'd be retiring down in South America or the Caribbean, now......We're actually thinking about retiring up in Quebec City. That will make me a very happy man lol

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

makes perfect sense 

And Torch Tiger you're one of the few that loves to taunt people and not a nice way. Doesn't bother me, but just know that you could use a class on proper etiquacy.

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

4 out of 52 members on the EPS that aren’t cutters to some degree. What could go wrong

It surely does suck. It would be nice that just once things would stay consistent a week out. So normal to feel this way, and I happily admit that I feel disappointed to, and I will again. But one of these will stick ( and when it does we're all going to be on the roof like little kids, getting ready to go sled riding after a big snowstorm with all our friends ). That's why we all keep coming back. Glutton for punishment lol

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nobody honked. I think you meant "discussed what models showed."  

No, MJO812 is right. Even the meteorologists in Connecticut talked about the possibility of a big nor'easter and snow being likely the end of next week. So of course everyone was going to get excited. It just looked like a pattern that would be locked.

So in all fairness, give him a break.. you don't always have to feel the need to correct somebody. I think a lot of us were excited.

What sucks is Winter is truly my favorite season. What initially looked like a December to remember is disappointing to say the least, but I remind myself that we have January, February, and March. 

It sucks to see people either want to give up on this Winter ( I'm sorry..late fall ), or others thriving over taunting others for there own benefit. But .. the way of the world I guess. 

I posted something and then deleted it as I wrote it with my emotions, not with my head.

Im still very excited for what the rest of the Winter will bring, and like last year, when we did get that period into February where many of us were happy, the same will probably happen this year. 

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You feel warm and fuzzy about the 00z runs so far wolfie?

I have a question for you. Can you honestly say that what the models are showing last night and early today are the final outcome for next Thursday, Friday?

Did you just join this thread? Lol 

In all seriousness, things are bound to change from what they're showing today. From all of the model runs. Maybe you enjoy getting a rise out of people, but if you were smart, you would take these runs with a grain of salt and see where we fall as we get towards Sunday Monday. There are lots of things changing in the atmosphere. And we have the coldest air that we've seen so far coming down to the US heading towards the east the end of next week. Give it some time to get all of these things ingested into the computers to see where it's going to fall

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah, exactly why 12/25-12/31 may be where everyone from DCA-BOS sees a snow event if this fails...the PNA does not go positive with a ridge on or just inland of the W Coast until then...the ridge positioning through the next 7 days has screwed us with cutters or inside runners before.

You know, I have to agree. The storm next week may be the actual one that sets us up for the next one the following week.

If it cuts in, there is so much cold air behind it that will have all that cold air to hit the next one.

I really really would love a white Christmas. But I really don't want it on Christmas Eve. That's a big day for my whole family, and we finally have everybody here this year to get together. It doesn't happen on Christmas Eve itself. I would rather take rain, sorry guys. ( And I'm the biggest snow weenie on here )

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Looks like a carbon copy of this storm today

Ya know... I swear you love to focus the negatative. Lol

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That's the model not me  

 

My concern given the confluence is a hugger...but I think forecasting it one way or the other isn't the best approach. Hopefully just offshore.

Now I do wonder, if it is a hugger, we do have a lot more cold air behind the storm that we didn't have with the one today. I'm wondering if that actually could help things a little bit. If the storm strengthens a lot, can really wrap that cold air in. Just a thought

It's great having these discussions on what could happen next Thursday and Friday.

But again, looking back at the model runs from last night and this morning, it's not like 75% of them are showing a horrible outcome. There are more outcomes in our favor than not. And of course things are going to change over the next several days. Why are some of us saying it's a done deal and it's over. We go through this every single time.

Let's give it some time guys. Let's give it some time.

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If this ended up cutting, then I would legit take a break.

Same goes for me man. Until we actually have a legitimate snowstorm to follow. Funny thing is, if we get something 2 days later that becomes a major snowstorm you know will be on here like nothing ever happened lol

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Look at all the members running this up into CNY. I worry 

Conversely.. look at all the member off shore.  It's to early to worry. 

Have a beer and relax ;-)

 The models are going to show so many different scenarios. The mere fact that there's a storm on the models, and some really good cold air around are all encouraging signs.

Yesterday they showed blockbuster storm but it takes a lot to get that kind of storm in December. I just hope we do get some snow, even if it's just two to four inches. That way we'll have a nice festive Christmas

37 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Still looking huggy/cuttery this AM.

Looking at all 3 most recent runs ( GFS, Euro, GEM )... Not sure what you mean about cuttery? All show the storm of the coast ( yes... Closer into the coast on 2 and a little further out on another ). 

Still a great look and signal for next week.

That's odd. It's 33 here. Raining from what I see, but surprised it's down to 33?

I could swear there is are some wet flakes mixing in here. 

Since we're waiting a bit. If we look back on some of our larger storms in the past. If we had similar output 7 days prior to the actual date of the storm? 

It a very good amount of agreement with several of the models. Definitely not something we see often. And we are one week out from it, so definitely more substance to what we're seeing today.