ChiTownSnow

Just yesterday we were all shaming the 18z GFS like it was the red headed stepchild of the GFS family

Clearly he does it for the attention..likes getting under people's skin sadly we all took the bait (me included)

Not sure it's borderline any longer.. there is a clear pattern

I like seeing MKE in the game while other models hint sound. Historically this bodes well for ORD and Lake enhancements set up

So, way too early to be looking at these is what ur saying?

Yep.. That's what I was looking for. Many thanks

Newbie question . How/where do we see the spread of QPF from the models? IIRC there is a plot of this somewhere that the mean is generated from..

Cmon guys.. we finally have a storm to track.. Let's not ruin the fun

Strength of the system is going to have more of an an impact of how far north it goes. Weaker/south vs stronger/north

Keep in mind- this is long range for the NAM

I imagine chicago storm flipping his desk over right about now

Thanks for the elaboration. Wasnt trying to argue against it and was more of an observation than anything. Thanks for the expertise and contributions to the forum

I'm surprised that LOT is so on board with 6+ . Confidence seems higher than normal

Let's all stop feeding the beast and maybe the beast will stop. He clearly likes the attention

That sleet/snow line was on the move but has since slowed down a bit?

Temps dropped earlier from 30 to 27. Now 28

Keep moving east!

Props to ChicagoStorm and others who called this one south several days ago and loooong before models/local mets picked up on this

Anybody care to throw out any last minute/nowcast adjusted numbers for locations? I'm going with 3-4 for my backyard

LOT added Kane and Lake counties in the WSW "National Weather Service Text Product Display" https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Holding steady at 30 degrees for several hours

Local temp crept up to 30 degrees

LOT "National Weather Service Text Product Display" https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 While again see no reason yet that the snow side won`t perform or perhaps locally overperform, there`s signs on the guidance that the mix/change to brief sleet then freezing rain could occur a bit earlier this evening. This would be followed by steady rates, and potential for localized ice accums north of I-80 up to 0.2 to 0.25". Should confidence increase in snowfall amounts needing to be adjusted upward with southward extent, plus the anticipated ice accretion tonight, may need to consider another expansion of the Winter Storm Warning, including deeper into the Chicago metro. If we decide to expand the warning, will look to get that update out as early as possible this afternoon.

Every storm is unique though and has unique scenarios. IMHO, i think we tend to associate storms with the outliers that we remember from the past too often.

Yardstick?. Let's start with one of those plastic 6-in rulers first