Weather balloon data starts coming in with the 12z models. I think by then we really start getting a grip on who's getting what.
IMO, the ridge is going to be a little too far east for the storm to gain enough latitude before kicking ots. Right now it's showing the ridge vertex over MT and WY. If that ridge retreats west to the ID/MT border, we're in business.
For now I like Jersey Shore WWA scraper or a miss over a warning-critera snowfall.