Sundog

@forkyfork 12z GFS from last Monday had the right idea:

I don't know, I'm also not saying that batch will slam NYC, honestly it will probably fizzle out on the way down. But this is definitely not the forecast the models had for Southern New England and NY.

HRRR only has some rain in the last few hours runs. If you go back a few runs it had the rain much further north and east.

0z Euro doesn't have a drop of rain in central NY, all of Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Hahahahahaha Even if all of it vaporized right now it is an amazing bust for only a few hours out.

This is one of the greatest short term busts we've seen in a while.

So much for the supposedly reliable Euro having this rain pass through Northern New England hahahaha What a garbage model

Holy crap what model had the rain this far west? Did they literally all drop the ball?

Look at those low temps on those charts wow Give me the occasional major heatwave if I can have those lows back please!

I think it kind of dives south a bit overnight. But clearly it's not coming over us.

I have the majority of metric conversions memorized in terms of temperature

Holy shit dude I did it again lolol

1966 is the only one where the average was over 100. But it's not fair to have the whole period average over a certain number, basically if there are 5 days over 90 all 5 days qualify but if two out of those 5 days the average was 90 and the other three days it was 106, it would still not average over 100 over the 5 day period, despite those three days being absolutely epic heat. Yet if the 90 degree days were only 89 degrees they wouldn't be counted as part of the period and the average would shoot up despite technically being a cooler stretch.

Then there would have only been one event that qualified as per Don's chart. 100 is too high for our area.

The always overheated GEMLAM has high heat for us Tuesday but the highest is actually in southern NJ. This is 2PM Tuesday:

Just cut back the canopy that towers around the station.

The wind really picked up out there

@FPizz says it's accurate

That one event where people got 10 inches in a 5 block wide band? That's @FPizz favorite event.

It might do it on Tuesday. I'll be at 104 if that happens which makes me annoyed

If the park gets to 100 on any day it will definitely be Tuesday

If I knew for a fact their wouldn't be any power issues I would care if it got very hot every once in awhile. That's were my biggest concern lies.

I'm thinking the seabreeze on Monday afternoon knocks down the heat building effects. We are not going to see 90 degrees at 2AM early Tuesday morning like models were showing several days ago. No doubt if the Euro is right though Tuesday will be very bad.

To be fair the higher resolution models are much cooler than the inferno Euro.

Euro is still 105 for Tuesday, the only model that hot.

Can you post 5PM map?