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Sundog

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Everything posted by Sundog

  1. Sundog
    The difference is the crysophere can still be in place in large swaths of Canada in April whereas it's nowhere to be found in mid September unless you're on the Arctic Ocean.
  2. Sundog
    No chance. Though I would love nothing more to be true
  3. Sundog
    Models are wishy washy with how much rain falls up here They mostly all bring the low up here to affect us, they just differ in how much rain actually falls once it's here.
  4. Sundog
    The Euro AI has been the only model that was showing for many days that the rain would reach our coast. I don't know what the final outcome will be with this but all the models came around to it. Amazing job with the AI Euro sniffing this out days in advance of other models.
  5. Sundog
    Clouds are one of the tricky variables that climate models haven't really nailed down yet. They can have cooling and warming effects.
  6. Sundog
    Even if that's true (I have no idea) I think it's low clouds that do the best job at cooling the surface. So if we are losing low clouds that's bad if you want to keep the Earth's temp from rising further.
  7. Sundog
    This is the wettest Euro run yet for the coastal low. This is 6z:
  8. Sundog
    The potential is there for more intense systems. Theres a straightforward relationship between energy and intensity. That doesn't mean that intensity will be realized or there won't be other factors that hamper the realization of that intensity.
  9. Sundog
    It's not out of the ordinary.
  10. Sundog
    Excellent post Don. I've been saying for years that a model's usefulness goes far behind it's 500mb hemispheric score.
  11. Sundog
    I read a study not too long ago that showed low clouds (I think it was low) were becoming less numerous because of warming. The warmer air/sea surface temps disrupt low cloud formation, leading to even more warming, leading to even more disruption, etc.
  12. Sundog
    The oceans will continue to absorb C02, just because they got a little warmer doesn't mean they have reached the degassing point. They just won't absorb CO2 (or any gas) as well as they did when they were colder. That creates a positive feedback loop for global warming unfortunately. But they will continue to absorb gases, just not at the same rate.
  13. Sundog
    The EURO AI has been bringing rain from the coastal low for many runs now and now the GFS brings some rain up here this way as well. But the regular Euro refuses to budge and is basically dry.
  14. Sundog
    Sunday looks a bit tricky, Euro is the warmest while other models have mnore onshore flow like buewave said might happen.
  15. Sundog
    For yesterday the EPS run from your posted map had the coastal lingering, that's why temps were probably too low.
  16. Sundog
    Are the overall anomalies being affected by higher low temps? I don't see any temps higher than upper 70s on the EPS.
  17. Sundog
    "Warmest winter on record" really looked like it was going to happen until that record PNA ridge unleashed the Arctic.
  18. Sundog
    Crazy, I got to 54 degrees in Queens, only 3 degrees warmer than you
  19. Sundog
    Yea I remember rainshadow, though I never knew his name. I thought you were maybe talking about Tony Riggi and you made a typo, it's like one letter difference lol Antonio Riggi helped me out like 14 years ago with creating long length radar loops of past storms using archived radar data. He's at Weatherbell now.
  20. Sundog
    Wait are you talking about Antonio Riggi or is Tony Gigi someone else?
  21. Sundog
    These last three weeks must have been miserable for you
  22. Sundog
    I remember that cold blast. I was supposed to fly to Greece on the 2nd but there was engine trouble on my plane and I had to leave the next day instead. Because of that I was able to catch that intense CAA and experience lows in the mid 50s the next morning when I would have otherwise missed them.
  23. Sundog
    Perfect timing, hopefully with the clouds gone we can cool down nicely tonight.
  24. Sundog
    If we're talking about Central Park, then maybe. They struggle to hit 90 in July let alone mid to late September.
  25. Sundog
    What percentage of total stations in Upton made it to 90? Or at least within 50 miles of NYC? I ask because I don't know where most of those stations are and if they are in a tight geographic area it might not represent that much of the region. I also don't count stations that are too far away, for example I don't care if Philly gets to 90, they're 100 miles away.
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