JustinRP37

Groundhog was wrong once again. This month looking to finish much above normal for temps. Base state is always going to be above normal.

Guess I better get my protractor warmed up for the season…

Icing up outside here now, but roads are in pretty good shape. They dump so much salt down though. The past two days have been the worst weather days for comfort in a long time. I absolutely hate this type of weather. Give me snow or torch.

Except the thing is very few schools are doing remote learning during “snow days”. That’s the thing though we knew around the city when you wake up to 54 degrees and a relatively clear radar that you could have gotten in at least a half day of school. Also odd is many districts in Westchester have used almost all their snow days already.

Much different setup though. I would have never gotten today off as a child growing up. Hate to sound like the “back in my day” person but it is shocking how low the threshold is to close schools now.

I understand about being cautious but the number of closures today is absolutely ridiculous. Roads are still warm from last night plus they are out salting. Doesn’t really turn bitter until well after dinner in most of the metro. (Normal dinner time not City 8-10PM dinner time)

This outcome is really odd based on their 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and weeks 3-4 outlook. The 6-10 and 8-14 day for our area is below average temperature and weeks 3-4 is equal chances. They must be banking on some really warm days towards the end of the month, but then again the weeks 3-4 outlook should hint at this and be above normal. If we are above normal, I think it will be within 1F. Edit: the 8-14 day is slightly above.

This turned out to be one of my favorite winter months in a long time. Nice sustained cold, tons of machine made snow on the ski areas all topped with amazing powdery snow this weekend. This is what winter should be!

This aged welL haha

Wow this devolved into name calling about something we literally have no control over all.

Those error bars are mighty large. I wouldn’t put much faith in any pattern from the models over 10 days out warm or cold as we have consistently seen. I’ve eaten a lot of crow this year already thinking December would be average and January slightly above. Once December was so warm I didn’t anticipate such a huge reversal given the models. They have not been good in the long range. My advice, roll with it. We had a great winter storm today and January has been a true winter month which has been amazing. Honestly looking at the pattern I think February will be around average (given DJF and average overall temp) and a cooler March. That’s my two cents for now.

Yeah it is already insane. I wanted to go to Ski Sundown to teach my son since I learned there but they sold out on Thursday for Sunday lift tickets. I expect tomorrow to be very busy at Mohawk with this Aspen-like powder. Hopefully my son loves it. We played all day, so I have a feeling he will have a great day. Loved ice skating last weekend!

What a storm. Rode it out in Central CT with my parents so we can take my son to Mohawk Mountain tomorrow to get him on skis. He is 3 and loving the snow. Great storm and nobody tainted! Downright cold now!

Did someone really try to say the GFS was right with this storm? If we all listened to the GFS then all the metro would have needed is some salt for the roads. The GFS was not right with the low placement until it started to cave. Euro was much better. And the model outputs we’re okay except when people looked at kuchera which exaggerated the totals as usual. Oh and it is still going to snow for awhile…

After looking at the models the past few days, I think they need a 5 day covid quarantine. They have to be sick with how they handled this system. Maybe we should try the good old system restart haha. Still it is turning out to be quite a fun storm.

I don’t think NWS is using Kuchera amounts…

And we also could still be. The two lows is interesting but may not be correct.

It's why I feel comfortable saying 6-10. Could adjust up or down though. If I had to guess, and say if it is more likely to go up or down, I would say up based on the atmosphere. However, I feel comfortable with 6-10.

I mean I'm not that sad...

I like 6-10 for the city, quickly dropping off west and especially in NW NJ. Westchester I like 6-10 and towards the 10 south and east. Fairfield County 8-14, more towards Bridgeport, and then that is where we pick up more. NW CT I think is in the 4-10 range. One thing is for certain, this storm is a pain in the a to the double s. I do not like this one bit.

It is kind of funny that you can predict just who will post based on what the models are showing. Not as much snow leads to one set of posters, more snow leads to others. The true winners are the one that practice meteorology over modelorogy. This is still a significant event for the majority of the subforum. Please don't downplay it just because you live west. There is still time before this begin and we have seen some dramatic shift both positive and negative as a storm starts to bomb.

East of what part of 287? 287 is a loop from Port Chester through Central Jersey. I’d say from the western side of 287 east we see clear warning level snows.

Way too many people saying East before a run has even printed. Please think before you type. It’s getting ridiculous. We have clearly seen some good output today.

Again most models are still showing this to be a decent storm for NYC and eastern metro. This will likely bring NYC up to the season average for the date, which is pretty good seeing where we are this season. People need to stop acting like this won't be a storm unless we get 2+ feet.

The people saying it is the same, please make an appointment with an eye doctor. Then take a course on geography.